Is altcoin season coming?

• Bitcoin has erased 15% value over the past three months, hovering around $56,500 on Wednesday.
• Crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, completes the second wave of Elliott impulse and prepares for gains.
• The Altcoin Season Index climbs to 55 as 32% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past three months.

Bitcoin is hovering around $56,500 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has erased 15% of its value in the past 90 days.

Blockchaincenter.net’s altcoin season index shows that 16 of the top 50 altcoins outperformed BTC during the same period.

By definition, when 75% of the top 50 altcoins ranked by market cap outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day time frame, it’s considered an altcoin season, and we’re not there yet.

Additionally, the crypto market cap chart, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, shows promising signs of altcoin growth.

These signs suggest that altcoin season is likely

The top cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since its March 14 record high of $73,777. Over the past 90 days, the price of Bitcoin has corrected by 15%. During the same time frame, 16 altcoins in the top 50 outperformed BTC.

Helium (HNT), AAVE, Tron (TRX), WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) and XRP are the top five altcoins that generated the biggest gains, with several other altcoins offering negative returns over the same time frame.

The performance of the top 50 altcoins in the last 90 days

The performance of the top 50 altcoins last month

Blockchaincenter.net’s altcoin season index shows 55 on a scale of 0 to 100, meaning it’s not yet an altcoin month. Once the value exceeds 75, it indicates an altcoin season.

Altcoin Month Index from Blockchaincenter.net

Traders are watching this metric closely to predict whether altcoins in the top 50 will extend gains this cycle.

On the other hand, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin and Ethereum is a key metric that examines the potential for an altcoin rally.

A higher market cap results from higher prices of altcoins. To predict where other currencies are headed, Elliott Impulse waves are used. They consist of five smaller waves moving in the same direction as part of a larger trend.

The TradingView chart below shows that the second wave of Elliott momentum is complete, the total market cap of altcoins (excluding BTC and Ether) could rise to $2 trillion by the end of the fifth wave.

The October 2023 accumulation zone is similar to the chart pattern of recent weeks as seen in the weekly chart below. If the pattern repeats, an altcoin season rally is expected in Q4 2024 and 2025.

Total crypto market cap excluding BTC, ETH

Crypto analyst identifies three altcoins likely to win in a seasonal altcoin rally

Analyst at Crypto Banter (@Sheldon_Sniper) listed Arweave (AR), Render (RNDR) and Chainlink (LINK) as three altcoins that are likely to rise in the altseason. The analyst set price targets for the three altcoins and predicted gains between 37% and 200% in the three assets.