Polymarket reaches weekly high of user activity related to the US election

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Last night’s US presidential debate sparked user activity on Polygon’s Polymarket-based prediction market as the election’s weekly user percentage reached an all-time high of 72.8%. The previous record was set in the week of July 15 at 70.7%, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard by Richard Chen.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s Chances for Polymarket to Win the US Presidential Election bound with former President Donald Trump at 49% following last night’s debate. For brief periods on 9/11, Harris took the lead by 1%.

Harris got 3% of Trump’s shares, and bets on a favorable result for the Democratic representative exceeded $116 million. Trump still holds the lead in betting, with more than $133 million earmarked for the former president winning the election.

Moreover, likely due to the lack of crypto-related remarks, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by as much as 3% during the debate. It recovered slightly and BTC is now down 0.8% in the last 24 hours, which is not an amazing price move in the current market conditions.

Lazy September followed by an explosive Q4

The merchant identifying himself as Rekt Capital highlighted in a post on September 11, X that Bitcoin usually begins an upward movement within 150 to 160 days of the halving, which is a period that ends in the next two weeks.

However, the trader pointed to September’s track record for risk assets as the month has historically offered limited average returns.

“More realistically, the odds favor a breakout in October, which has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, especially in halving years like 2024,” he added.

Additionally, comparing the current cycle to the previous halvings, Rekt Capital showed that Bitcoin has seen growth for the entire fourth quarter in the previous two cycles. Thus, despite the fact that a parabolic movement is unlikely in September, chances are that Bitcoin will start a significant rally next month.

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