All signs Trump lost the debate

Despite the reputation he made in the GOP primary debates, Trump has struggled in the general election showdowns. Polls showed he lost all three debates against Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. His first debate against then-former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020 is considered one of the worst ever.

It remains to be seen how much Tuesday’s debate will matter. Research has shown the debates only slightly affect the election, but even in an era of close races, Trump and Harris remain narrowly separated in the small number of swing states that will decide the presidency.

Trump, of course, still won the White House in 2016 despite his struggles against Clinton. But once again, he has put his campaign in a difficult spot, largely by his own doing.

Here are the marks Trump added to his total debate losses.

The prediction markets gave Harris a slight edge.

Heading into the debate, Trump had a narrow lead on PolyMarket, a crypto-based betting market that counts election prognosticator Nate Silver as one of its advisers. By the end of the 90-minute encounter, Harris emerged as the favorite at the end of the day for the first time in over two weeks. Her lead didn’t last long, though, because by Wednesday afternoon, Trump was back slightly ahead.

Prediction markets are far from perfect. As Vox reported, in 2020, traders at PolyMarket competitor PredictIt at one point gave Clinton the third-highest chance of winning the Democratic nomination even if she didn’t run.

Prediction markets operate on shaky legal ground in the US, which can make their user bases less reflective of the actual populations that control their results. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates derivatives, has gone back and forth with PredictIt over its operation. In May, the government regulator decided to explicitly ban de facto betting on politics.

There are some benefits. Traditional, high-quality polls are less responsive to the real-world events that shape elections. Such events can affect pollsters if they occur while their survey is already in the works, which can result in a sample of voters coming to the table with very different experiences.

Trump’s beloved scholarship is no better.

There might be an even better measure than prediction markets. Thanks to Trump’s willingness to mix business with politics, his initials are once again a publicly traded asset. Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, fell on Wednesday.

Traders have indicated they will sell the struggling company’s stock when there is negative news about Trump.

The CNN poll showed Trump losing by a fairly large margin.

To make up for the lag time in traditional polls, TV networks often run so-called “snap or flash” polls immediately after debates to catch debate viewers. By design, the poll only includes voters who watched the debate — leaving out many Americans who vote but may watch only some or none of the showdowns. Historically, such polls may also reflect a bias of supporters who feel their candidate won the debate.

That said, CNN’s quick poll found Harris winning the debate by a margin of 63 percent to 37 percent. Presumably in response, not long after the debate, Trump began posting on Truth Social various screenshots of unscientific polls conducted on X. Trump has long loved these types of polls.

The Murdoch Media Empire was not pleased either.

Rupert Murdoch-owned media properties couldn’t help but air and broadcast signs of Harris’ victory.

Immediately afterward, Fox News chief political analyst Brit Hume told the network, “Make no mistake. Trump had a bad night.”

The front page of the New York Post blared a headline that described Trump as “troubled.”

And the Wall Street Journal editorial board, long considered the voice of the establishment wing of the GOP, also deemed Harris the winner.

“Mrs. Harris, who is less well known than the former president, had the most to gain and we assume she helped herself. She clearly won the debate, though not because she supported her vision or the record of the final four. years”, wrote the editors.

Instead, the board concluded, Harris won simply by goading Trump.

“Harris set the trap, so he spent a lot of the debate talking about the past, or Joe Biden, or immigrants eating pets, but not how he would improve the lives of Americans over the next four years.”

Trump and his allies blamed ABC

Before the debate ended, Trump campaign officials blasted ABC News for moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis’ on-air debunking of some of Trump’s claims.

“3 to 1, as expected,” Trump spokesman Jason Miller wrote on X during the debate.

Donald Trump Jr., Trump’s eldest son, added: “Strange how the @abcnews hack moderators only ‘verify’ Trump and allow Kamala to lie nonstop. Fake news is the enemy of the people!”

Their complaints gave the impression of a frustrated coach lashing out at the officials instead of absorbing the blame for their team in a loss.

Look what it made Taylor Swift do.

Taylor Swift, the biggest star on the planet, came off the sidelines and supported Harris minutes after the debate ended. Swift’s support was always expected, but her silence has led some fans to theorize that she may sit out the 2024 race.

That she announced her endorsement right after the debate only added to the narrative that Democrats are ready to boost football. For what it’s worth, Harris’ campaign claimed it was surprised by the timing of Swift’s announcement.

Trump is backing away from a rematch.

Before Biden dropped out of the race, Trump teased the president for months about the debates. Amid the debates with Harris, Trump said he wanted three confrontations with her. Some Trump allies are still raising the possibility of another debate.

But for now, Trump is shying away from his former bravado — boasting like Apollo Creed that “there will be no rematch.”

“In the World of Boxing or the UFC, when a Fighter is beaten or knocked out, they stand up and scream, ‘I WANT A RETURN, I DEMAND A RETURN!’ Well, it’s no different with a Debate. She was beaten badly last time. night,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday afternoon. “Every poll has us WINNING, in one case, 92-8, so why would I do a rematch?”

To be fair, Rocky Balboa’s fictional nemesis Creed won their first fight. Then again, Creed loses the rematch and the title by a decisive margin.

Fittingly, the Trump-Harris debate took place in Philadelphia.