Bitcoin could soon hit six figures regardless of the election, investors say

Despite the increasingly partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, bitcoin will thrive in the long run regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November.

That’s a view many crypto investors are coming to accept as the wave of optimism spurred by former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto proposals this summer begins to recede.

“Do I think we’ll be in six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereign states and the United States,” added Lubka. “No candidate is changing that.”

Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow cap bitcoin’s price or cause it to fall are overblown, said James Davies, co-founder of crypto trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. Crypto startups may be more challenged, but the industry will continue to push forward and thrive, he noted. It helps that bitcoin has become more institutionalized than ever this year with the introduction of US bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

“Some of our communities … have become echo chambers and are convinced that the sky will fall if one side or the other wins,” Davies said. “The truth is that the market is robust, it’s not US-centric, and it hasn’t reacted negatively to major events on either side” of the partisan divide.

“This is about opportunity and regulation for US users, not the price of a global commodity,” he added. “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, it needs to lobby both sides, align with both sides and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a big ecosystem, we can’t afford to be partisan.”

Exaggerated risk

Lubka agreed that some observers are “exaggerating the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry experienced during the Biden administration. That said, he added, “all the indicators we’re seeing with Harris are a continued de-escalation” of Biden-era crypto rhetoric.

“The election results will have minimal effects on bitcoin’s performance over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and chairman of registered investment adviser 401 Financial. “There are still a lot of firms working through access to ETFs, rate cuts have come in and retail trading at centralized custodians is low. it will continue to prove itself no matter who is in office.”

Bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after hitting an all-time high of over $73,000 in March. Investors expected the price to continue in this pause until US voters decide the next president. However, election news has recently had less of an impact on the bitcoin price, which is more influenced by macroeconomic developments.

After Tuesday night’s debate between Harris and Trump, bitcoin fell about 3 percent, though investors attributed that to interest rate updates in Japan and positioning around U.S. inflation data for August, which was released early Wednesday.

Growing Partisan Sentiment

In recent months, there has been speculation that the election will serve as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin — with many characterizing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the industry. The former president, for example, addressed the annual Bitcoin conference in late July in Nashville and made sure that a reference becomes a priority in the Republican Party Platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that if he wins on November 5, the cryptocurrency could hit a new all-time high of around 80,000 dollars. However, a Harris win could push bitcoin to $40,000, Bernstein said.

“If Trump wins in November, will there be an immediate pump? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, could there be immediate selling pressure? That certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But in the medium term, I don’t think so. dynamics,” Lubka said of Swan Bitcoin.

Vice President Harris has not shared a public view on crypto, but parts of the industry are concerned that she is hostile to crypto, and she shares the views of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler. who are believed to be holding back. crypto adoption.

“There have been no clear statements, but there has been a bad history under the Biden administration … so I understand why people are paying attention,” Lubka said.

While there are concerns due to the Biden administration’s stance on bitcoin, “I would remind investors … that bitcoin has done great” under the current administration, Lubka added. “It was one of the most successful assets in the world at a time when everyone was against it. Traditionally, governments have been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin throughout its history, and it has done extremely well.”

Bitcoin has been the best performing asset since 2012, except for three years.