China takes over South China Sea, US not doing enough to stop: experts

In recent months, China has engaged in increasingly aggressive operations against the Philippines around the disputed islands of Sabina Shoal, Escoda Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.

In June, Chinese coastguards armed with swords and knives attacked Philippine ships off the coast of Second Thomas Shoal, resulting in injuries and one soldier losing his thumb.

A month later, the largest coast guard ship dropped anchor in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone off Escoda Shoal, which the Philippines considered an act of “intimidation.”

And just last month, a spokesman for the Philippine coast guard, Jay Tarriela, said China had deployed 40 ships to block the delivery of supplies to soldiers stationed in Sabina Shoal.

Under its defense treaty, the US is supposed to come to the aid of the Philippines, its oldest ally in Asia, if there is an armed attack on its forces.

But it has so far failed to defend the Philippines in disputed waters.

Avoiding red lines

China has become aggressive in its encounters with neighboring countries, hitting and sinking fishing boats, brandishing weapons and firing water cannons, mostly through its coast guard.

According to the Mutual Defense Treaty, signed in 1951, the US must come to the aid of the Philippines in the event of an “armed attack”.

However, according to RAND Corporation senior defense researcher Timothy Heath, China is carefully avoiding triggering a US military response by “smartly designing” operations that harm the Philippines “well below” the threshold of an armed attack.

China is exploiting “grey zone” operations by deploying mostly “non-military” assets such as maritime law enforcement vessels and using “non-lethal” tactics, he told BI.

“Moreover, these incidents are taking place in disputed waters,” he added.

According to a 2023 report by the Congressional Research Service, the US does not take a position on sovereignty over any geographic feature in the South China Sea.

“Unless China uses military force to attack Philippine forces or conduct aggressive actions on Philippine soil, there are limits to the type of military force the U.S. is willing to use against China,” Heath added.

So far, China’s security bet appears to be working well, Koh said.

“China is comfortable with a long game as long as it is able to mass naval forces in the area,” he said.

Time for a reset?

The US routinely deploys its Navy and Air Force to conduct surveillance and reconnaissance missions near contested waters.

And last month, Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, seemed to suggest that limited support for the Philippines might be on the way.

Speaking at a conference, he said “escorting one ship to another is a completely reasonable option under our Mutual Defense Treaty.”

Meanwhile, Alexander Lopez, spokesman for the National Maritime Council of the Philippines, called for a review of the treaty, saying it must be adapted to new security challenges.

Since 1951, “the strategic landscape has changed so much,” he said.

RAND’s Heath suggested that this is likely an attempt by the Philippines to lower the threshold for US military involvement.

“But that could raise the risk of a US-China conflict, which is in nobody’s interest,” he said.

Another problem is that the defense treaty does not define what constitutes an “armed attack,” according to a legal review by the US Indo-Pacific Command.

According to Koh, this is a “growing concern” for the Philippines because it leaves it “open to so many interpretations.”

Countering China’s expansion

Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute specializing in China’s foreign relations, said the US is already supporting the Philippines in various ways.

It frequently reaffirms its commitments and assists the Philippines in efforts to modernize its military and deepen partnerships with countries pursuing similar security goals in the region, she said.

“US support for the Philippines has remained robust,” she added, “and is one of the most vital US alliances.”

However, the US’s hands are tied with the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, as well as fears of escalating tensions two months before the US presidential election, Koh said.

“If there is a clash, it will become fodder for either party, the Democrats and the Republicans, who will capitalize on it to try to win the election,” he told BI.

In this context, “China probably understood that the US is not so engaged because of distractions elsewhere,” he said.

He added: “It looks like the Chinese calculations may have paid off.”

According to Koh, since the US is apparently unwilling to act now, the Philippines is unsure whether it will help and would prefer to ease tensions with China.

However, in the long run, this could mean that China effectively takes over areas of territory claimed by the Philippines.

Koh said China could hold the Philippines’ future on the second Thomas Shoal “hostage to the point where one day they will be exhausted and have to leave.”

“Ultimately,” Koh said, “China’s goal here is to demonstrate an escalation of dominance to the Philippines, but of course not just to the Philippines, but also to demonstrate to its allies like the US that they have an overwhelming numerical advantage there and that if there will be war, there will be costs”.

For the US, these costs appear to be ones it is currently unwilling to pay.