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Did you miss Chipotle Mexican Grill? Buy Dutch Bros shares.

The upstart coffee chain has a bigger expansion opportunity right now.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 2.92%) it has long been a favorite of investors, and for good reason. It has delivered fabulous returns for shareholders who have stuck with it through thick and thin. Its opportunity is far from over, but it already has 3,500 restaurants, and growth investors may be looking for fresher choices.

It is not easy to successfully grow a restaurant chain, but Dutch Bros (BROS 2.17%) looks like it’s on its way, and growth investors should take a look.

New stores, more growth

Chipotle still plans to double its number of stores in North America and is starting to get more serious about international expansion.

How does Dutch Bros store expansion plan match Chipotle’s? The Mexican fast-casual restaurant chain sees room in the restaurant market for another 3,500 locations in the U.S. alone, while Dutch Bros plans to expand to a total of about 4,000 stores over the next 10 to 15 years, up from 912 today. In absolute terms, both plan to add a similar number of stores. But in percentage terms, Dutch Bros seems to have a much bigger growth opportunity.

So far, it has crushed it in revenue growth, and most of it has come from new stores. In the second quarter, revenue rose 30% year over year with a 4.1% increase in comparable sales (comps). If it can quadruple its store count, expect the stock price to rise accordingly.

Chipotle is a master at generating comp growth. But that often comes with an established brand presence, something Dutch Bros is still working on building. It is carefully spreading its footprint across the country and has locations in 18 states so far. Further growth in comps is likely to come as more people get to know and like its drinks, which is already happening in the regions where it has been operating for some time.

Brand and process definition

One of the reasons Chipotle has been so successful is that it has a well-defined lifestyle, strong digital channels and a precise process. These are the reasons Starbucks just poached (now) former Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol. In some ways, Dutch Bros has a head start on leader Starbucks because it’s so young. It works on these three pillars from the ground up, rather than trying to redefine itself and make changes in a vast enterprise.

It also got a new CEO and a revamped executive team last year and they are making changes to launch new stores with proper branding and process. Customers love its fun, down-to-earth atmosphere, which often includes music in the dining areas, and it has its “broistas” roaming the drive-thru lanes taking orders with point-of-sale devices.

Dutch Bros is also laying the groundwork for further expansion by opening a new resource center and moving to larger premises next year. And it’s building many new locations, with two drive-thrus plus an “escape route” for cars that get their orders before they get to the window.

Something that has been missing from the Dutch Bros manual is a digital ordering option, but that will now change. It has piloted its mobile ordering option at about 40 stores, and management expects mobile ordering through its app to be available from most stores by the end of the year. This intersects well with the company’s strong loyalty program — Dutch Rewards members accounted for 67% of sales in the second quarter.

Dutch Bros could be a bargain

Chipotle has been an incredible stock to own over the past few years, but its premium valuation has probably scared some investors away from buying it recently. The stock has fallen since Chipotle announced Brian Niccol’s departure, but it’s still not cheap.

Chart CMG PE Report (forward 1y).

Data on CMG PE ratio (forward 1y) by YCharts.

The price-to-earnings ratio is the most widely used valuation measure for a business, but it’s not the only way to assess a company’s value. In this case, it’s less helpful because Dutch Bros has only been profitable for a short time and was still making losses in some quarters last year. However, based on price to sales and price to cash from operations, it is much cheaper than Chipotle.

I’m not saying Chipotle isn’t a good buy right now. But if you’re looking for a great stock that’s just getting started and have the time to hold on to your investments and let them grow, Dutch Bros looks like an eager buy.

Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends Dutch Bros and recommends the following options: short September 2024 $52 put at Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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