La Nina weather has 71% chance of developing in September-November, US forecaster says Reuters

(Reuters) – There is a 71 percent chance of La Nina weather conditions developing between September and November, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

Weather conditions are expected to persist from January to March next year, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

La Nina, a climate pattern that begins with cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both flooding and drought, as well as an increase in hurricane frequency in the Caribbean.

La Nina is expected to bring less rain, worsening drought conditions that could affect agriculture globally.

CONTEXT

The cycle between El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase usually lasts two to seven years.

Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said there was a 60 percent chance of a La Nina phenomenon occurring between now and winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Brazilian soybean farmers could produce 14 percent more in the 2024/2025 season than the previous one, a Reuters poll showed, as expectations for higher rains in the final quarter of the year grow.

KEY QUOTE

“The agricultural and livestock sectors are clearly the most at risk from La Niña effects, many of these key areas for the production of crops such as soybeans and corn,” said David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics.

“The typical Nina may not materialize if the signal is weak. However, the main area to watch for drought issues and reduced crop production is cropland in Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil during the summer,” said Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather’s chief international forecaster. said.