Mexico’s judicial reform is probably a done deal – Commerzbank

Mexican President Andres Lopez Obrador (AMLO), who leaves office at the end of the month, is wasting no time when it comes to controversial judicial reform, notes Antje Praefcke, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

The peso will likely remain under downward pressure

“It was passed yesterday without amendment by the Senate, with a majority of over two-thirds required for constitutional amendments. Although the bill needs to be passed by more than half of Mexico’s local congresses, this should only be a formality.”

“Overall, the law, which seeks to ensure that Supreme Court justices and federal judges are elected by popular vote in the future, ultimately undermining the separation of powers and expanding the influence of the current regime, is likely to go into effect. before the end of the month.”

“AMLO’s move undermines investors’ confidence in the regime. It is also debatable whether the law violates the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA). Under these conditions, the peso is likely to remain under downward pressure.”