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WTI rises to near $68.50 due to production disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico

  • The WTI price appreciated as Hurricane Francine caused production disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico.
  • Official data showed that nearly 42% of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico had been shut in as of Thursday.
  • Both OPEC and the IEA cut their forecasts for oil demand growth, citing economic challenges in China.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil held gains for a third consecutive day, trading around $68.50 during the Asian session on Friday. The rise in crude oil prices is being driven by Hurricane Francine, which forced producers to evacuate rigs ahead of its impact on the Louisiana coast on Wednesday, causing production disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico.

On Thursday, oil producers conducted damage assessments and safety checks to resume operations in the US Gulf of Mexico. According to Reuters, UBS analysts estimated that oil production in the region for September would fall by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, FGE analysts had forecast a decline of more than 60,000 bpd, bringing total output to 1.69 million bpd. Official reports indicated that nearly 42 percent of the region’s oil production had been shut down as of Thursday.

This week, both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut their forecasts for oil demand growth, attributing the review to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. In addition, speakers at the APPEC conference pointed out that China’s transition to low-carbon fuels is also reducing its demand for oil.

China’s crude oil imports fell an average of 3.1 percent from January to August this year compared to the same period last year, according to customs data released on Tuesday. In addition to concerns about China, worries about demand have also intensified in the United States. U.S. gasoline and distillate futures hit multi-year lows this week, as analysts pointed to weaker-than-expected demand in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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