China’s economic data will set the tone for the week – Commerzbank

Early next week, there will be all kinds of economic data from China to “work,” notes Barbara Lambrecht, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

The data is unlikely to provide a significant boost to oil prices

“Industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and new home sales will provide insight into the current state of the Chinese economy. Her weakness is likely to have continued until recently. In the oil market, the focus is likely to be on crude oil processing. The significant increase in Chinese crude imports in August would suggest a recovery in processing.”

“In its monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that crack spreads in commodity markets were narrower than at this time of the year in recent years. Second, the IEA again revised down its forecast for slowing Chinese demand growth: it now expects growth of just under 200,000 bpd, down from 700,000 bpd earlier in the year, which was actually slightly higher than average. has grown over the past decade.”

“Both of these factors argue against a significant increase in crude oil processing, which was less than 14 million barrels per day in July, the lowest level since October 2022. As such, the data is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the price oil”.