What silver tsunami? Baby Boomers plan to never sell their homes

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Five years ago, Zillow released a report predicting the silver tsunami, a wave of baby boomers that would put their homes up for sale, flooding the market. The original forecast called for more than 27% of owner-occupied homes to be for sale by 2037.

So far, the silver tsunami hasn’t even created a wave. While the inventory of existing homes is growing, it has remained below historic levels. Instead, seniors stay put, choosing to age in place.

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A study by Clever Real Estate found that 61 percent of boomers currently own homes, and 54 percent plan to spend the rest of their lives in them. Only 15% plan to sell in the next five years, and another 15% say they might sell within five to 10 years. Circumstances such as illness or financial problems could cause them to sell. Still, in general, many older people plan not to move, which means inventory can remain low in many markets for a long time.

Boomers cited financial security and a stable life at home as reasons to stay. Aging in place is not without concerns; 90% of those surveyed were concerned about maintaining home repairs. If they do sell, they expect big profits: 65% expect to make more than $100,000, and 40% are looking for $200,000 or more. However, even that financial incentive isn’t enough to prompt a move.

Complicated attitudes around property

Boomers were born in a favorable time to own a home. Prices were reasonable and wages kept up with the cost of a house. The study found that half of boomers bought their first home for $75,000 or less, and 64 percent paid less than $100,000. Only 6% of boomers said homes are too expensive when looking for their first home. Surprisingly, 42% of boomers believe that younger generations had it easier when buying their first home, and 64% believe that young people could be homeowners if they were more responsible.

The study also looked at boomers’ regrets about home ownership. Among those who have never owned a home, 66% regret it. However, 47% of those who have sold their homes say they would not recommend home ownership to younger generations. Among those who currently own a home, 46 percent said they would consider themselves a failure if they never owned a home.

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Is Aging In Place realistic?

A study from Redfin earlier this year tracked similar data, showing that many boomers are staying put because their homes are paid off and they have no reason to move. Although aging in place is the goal of most seniors, they may not consider the possibility of declining health.

Research from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies indicates that nearly 70 percent of adults will need long-term care services. Paying for this care may lead some to invest their savings or opt for a reverse mortgage. Only 14% of seniors can afford a daily home health care visit and housing costs. Of those surveyed by Clever Real Estate, 16 percent said they could not afford assisted living or a retirement community, and only 19 percent thought they would move into a retirement home if they sold. Genworth estimates the average monthly cost for home health care is $6,292, cheaper than a nursing home or assisted living facility, but still a significant financial burden.

As the US population ages, boomers’ attitudes may change. The oldest boomers are in their late 70s. As they enter their 80s, retaining home ownership may be a less realistic goal for some. For now, though, boomers and their homes are staying put.

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This article What silver tsunami? Baby Boomers Plan to Never Sell Their Homes originally appeared on Benzinga.com