Turkey’s ‘balancing act’ with BRICS should not worry the West too much: analysts

The BRICS group, named after its members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, was formed to challenge the political and economic power of developed Western nations.

Since the first informal meetings in 2006, when it was known only as BRIC, the bloc has grown to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has also been invited to join, but a Saudi official said in January that it had not yet done so.

If Turkey joins the bloc now, it would become its first NATO member and EU candidate, potentially complicating relations with the West and raising questions about Turkey’s commitment to the military alliance.

Turkey’s relationship with NATO has already been strained by the country’s continued ties to Russia following the latter’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as its efforts to improve relations with China.

Such moves appear to reflect Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s desire to establish the country’s independence by changing foreign policy. It now appears to be seeking to maintain what experts have called a “balancing act” between its relations with the West, Russia and China.

“Turkey is looking for alternatives. It does not want to leave its NATO membership. It does not want to give up its European aspirations. But it wants to diversify its set of alliances, to hedge its bets, so to speak”, Asli Aydintaşbaș , a visitor. fellow in the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, told France 24. “He no longer sees his membership in NATO as his only identity, his only foreign policy orientation.”

Aydintaşbaş said that Erdogan believed that the successful strategy had “a foot in different camps”, adding that he wanted “to be able to play the West against Russia, the West against China”.

“I think he ended up playing this geopolitical act very skillfully,” she said, but noted that he sometimes pushed his “geopolitical balancing act” too far.

A particular flashpoint came when Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2019, instead of NATO-made equivalents.

In 2020, the US said it had repeatedly made clear to Turkey that the purchase of the S-400 system “would jeopardize the security of US military technology and personnel and provide substantial funding to Russia’s defense sector, as well as Russian access to the Turkish Armed Forces and defense industry”.

Turkey’s decision to continue the deal ultimately led to its exclusion from the US F-35 program, as well as a series of US sanctions.

However, Bulent Aliriza, a senior associate of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BI that he does not believe that BRICS “will compete with NATO and the other Western countries of Turkey. links.”

“But it is a statement, I would say, of unhappiness with some aspects of their relationship with the West,” he said. “Even if Turkey joins BRICS, I don’t think it will lead to a fundamental redefinition of Turkey’s relationship with the West.”

Yusuf Can, coordinator of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, also argued that Turkey’s “strategic diversification should not alarm NATO allies,” saying they “could benefit from a partner” in such circles.

“Understanding and engaging with Turkey’s perspective can improve US and NATO relations with Turkey, regardless of potential administrative changes in Ankara,” Can wrote in an article for the Wilson Center.

Can noted that an improved US-Turkey partnership could also help secure crucial strategic regions such as the Black Sea, which has been at the heart of the Russia-Ukraine war.

“Economically, strengthened US-Turkey relations can benefit the EU by stimulating investment in new trade routes,” Can added.

Aliriza agreed that the West could find a way to benefit from the situation.

Speaking about Turkey’s potential BRICS membership, Aliriza told BI: “It doesn’t necessarily have to become a problem for the West, but it can actually benefit the West if Turkey and its Western partners can have an open and honest dialogue about how go ahead.”

“He still remains a member of the Council of Europe. Most of its trade is still with the West. And in terms of investment, although there has been a lot of speculation that there may be Chinese investment in Turkey, most of the foreign investment in Turkey. Turkey, either FDI or short-term funds seeking profit from high interest rates, came from the West,” he said.

For its part, the US has remained relatively quiet following news that Turkey’s BRICS ambitions could progress, which Aydintasbaş said was likely a smart move to avoid a public row.

“Washington is silent,” she told France 24. “It doesn’t want a public, high-profile discussion with Turkey, and it knows that President Erdogan is unpredictable.”

The BRICS group is to hold a summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 22-24.