Labor eyes win in London suburbs as general election looms

A string of Tory-dominated seats outside London are being chased by Labor for the majority it hopes to win in the general election.

Ten months after by-elections in Uxbridge and South Ruislip cast some doubt on Labour’s ability to capture Tory suburban strongholds, the party was buoyed by Sadiq Khan’s mayoral victory.

Former Labor leader Ed Miliband said: “We have seen change in Sadiq both in inner London and outside London – and I think that is very important.

“But mayoral elections, local elections, by-elections are different from general elections.

“In a general election, people choose their government and choose what happens on national issues like health and education, police funding, energy, economic stability, economic growth, all of these things – that’s who we are. will continue the fight.”

Mr Miliband, who is now the party’s shadow energy secretary, spoke to the Standard in Chipping Barnet, where Tory MP Theresa Villiers holds a narrow majority of just 1,212 votes over Labour.

Ms Villiers strongly opposed Mr Khan’s extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) to cover all of Greater London, calling it “the wrong scheme at the wrong time, hitting my constituents in the pocket without delivering significant environmental benefits or health. “. A few months before the extension, she tried to introduce a bill that would have allowed the Government to block the move.

Opposition to Ulez is believed to have played a key role in allowing the Tories to retain Uxbridge by just under 500 votes last July, but the number of cars, vans and motorbikes complying with the clean air zone rules has increased since then . then.

In December 2023, around 95.8% of vehicles seen driving on an average day in London were not liable for the £12.50 daily charge.

Asked if Ulez was still a big issue, Mr Miliband said: “I think Ulez was clearly an issue in the mayoral election and the people of London made their choice – which was to re-elect Sadiq for a third term historic”.

He added that the general election “won’t be about that”, with Labor hoping to focus instead on NHS waiting lists, high energy bills and teachers being cut from schools.

With an average lead in the national poll of more than 20 points, places like Chipping Barnet, along with neighboring constituencies like Hendon, should be a boon for Labour.

But Mr Miliband said: “My experience of general elections is that nothing is a walk in the park and we take nothing for granted.”

Some polls have predicted the Tories will lose all 21 London seats they secured at the last election, while others show them down to just five.

Despite Chipping Barnet currently having a slim majority, Labor failed to win the constituency even during its landslide victories under Tony Blair.

The party’s candidate there, Dan Tomlinson, said Labor had “completely changed” since its catastrophic national defeat in 2019 and hoped to win back voters who never supported the party.

“Lifelong Tories in Chipping Barnet who may not even have voted for us in 1997… They can look at me, they can look at (party leader Sir) Keir (Starmer), they can look at Rachel (Reeves, Shadow Chancellor) , and you see the party has changed – and they have a choice this time,” he said.

But Tory MP Mike Freer, who represents Finchley and Golders Green and is standing down at the next election, played down suggestions Labor would make big gains in the suburbs.

“Labour have been trying this seat at every election I’ve been in and they haven’t won yet, so I’m pretty confident we’ll hold this seat, as we will in many places in London,” he said.

“All I can say is that the support is at the threshold and I know that, looking at the votes that have come in for the mayoral election, we have done much better in some of our seats in London than the polls would suggest.”

Conservative party leader Richard Holden MP agreed, saying the mayoral result showed many seats were “for all”.

He said: “I think the fact that Labor is still having to focus on seats like this shows that the polls are so wrong.

“If those polls were right and Labor were 20, 30 points ahead, Labor wouldn’t be thinking about seats like this in Barnet. They wouldn’t think of these places outside of London – they’d think of other places around the country.

“They know this election isn’t over, they know they’re going to have to fight for every seat.”