Trump is narrowly ahead of Harris in GOP-leaning Iowa. Why it matters.

When Trump ran for re-election in 2020, he easily won Iowa, dashing Democratic hopes of a comeback in a state that in 2008 and 2012 supported Barack Obama – whose political career was launched in neighboring Illinois.

Barring a massive political swing, Iowa is set to support Trump in November. In June, before President Joe Biden withdrew as the Democratic nominee, Trump had a huge 18-point lead (50% to 32%) over Biden in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of likely voters .

But in a recently released poll by the highly respected Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by just four points (47 percent to 43 percent) among likely voters, a stunning number that shows Harris has gained considerable ground in compared to Biden.

Democrats in Iowa, like others across the country, are overwhelmingly enthusiastic about Harris’ candidacy, according to the poll.

But in Iowa, Trump is also struggling with female voters, the poll found, a reflection of an enduring gender gap that threatens his chances in the seven swing states he’ll need to win in November — and he made the race closer than expected in the Hawkeye State.

If signs of major electoral weakness can be found in Iowa, what does that say about his overall chances?

Trump has a problem with female voters nationally and in Iowa

Even in June, when Biden was still in the presidential race, Trump had a low favorability rating among independent women in Iowa.

At the time, women generally favored Biden nationally.

But Harris’ entry into the race bolstered her support among voters across the country. In Iowa, the gender gap is as pronounced as in many swing states.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Harris with a 17-point lead over Trump (53% to 36%) with likely female voters, while male voters supported Trump by a margin of more than 27 points (59% to 32%). .

During the campaign, Trump introduced his three Supreme Court appointments that led to the 2022 decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and sent the abortion issue back to the states. It’s a decision that continues to haunt Republicans across the country, as the party has suffered a slew of electoral losses over the past two years on issues involving reproductive rights.

In July, a six-week abortion ban went into effect in Iowa. It’s a reflection of the state’s GOP-led legislative agenda, which supported the law.

But in an Iowa poll last year, 61 percent of all voters said abortion should be legal “in most or all cases,” with 70 percent of Iowa women expressing that view.

In the most recent Iowa poll, voters in the state gave Harris an 11-point lead over Trump (53% to 42%) on the abortion issue. On every other major issue polled, from immigration to housing prices, Trump held an edge over the vice president.

Trump has struggled to refine his messaging on the issue to swing voters in key states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, giving Harris a major opening.

And it’s currently working to her advantage. Abortion is not an issue that can be neatly put into an ideological, partisan box. There are Republican voters who support some form of abortion rights despite the GOP’s overall anti-abortion stance.

That created problems for Trump among voters of all stripes, even in Iowa.

Meanwhile, Harris has clearly changed the race.

National polls echo what the Iowa poll found of a burst of enthusiasm among the Democratic base. That’s one of the main reasons Trump’s massive lead is now closing in on his 2020 margin. The Iowa Poll found that Iowans under 45 are now 10 points more likely to vote, while voters those with a university degree are nine points more likely to vote, and those living in cities are six points more likely to vote.

“This poll could catch newly energized voters who thought they weren’t going to the polls when our June poll was polled,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told The Register.

Trump’s slim lead in Iowa could point to trouble in more competitive states

Trump is still heavily favored to prevail in Iowa. Election prognosticator Nate Silver’s model gives the former president overwhelming odds of getting his six electoral votes. After all, Democrats only control one of the state’s offices.

However, the survey shows why an intense focus on the seven fluctuating states can sometimes be harmful. Look no further than former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the longtime Democrat who endorsed Trump and abandoned his third-party post.

Kennedy is fighting to get off the ballot in swing states, but he missed the deadline to withdraw from the Iowa ballot.

The Iowa poll found that six percent of voters still support Kennedy, down from June but still a headache-inducing number. It’s also not certain that Kennedy will get his wish to get off the ballot in every swing state, as officials in Wisconsin and Michigan’s highest court have rejected his efforts.

An equally intriguing poll of Alaska, a notoriously difficult state to poll, showed Trump with just a five percentage point lead there — despite carrying Alaska by just over ten points in 2020. Thanks to Rep. Mary Peltola, there are actually more Democrats in Alaska’s congressional delegation than Iowa’s, even though a Democratic presidential candidate has carried Alaska only once (Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964) since it was admitted to the union.

The Iowa poll is much more likely to illustrate Trump’s struggles elsewhere.

The poll found Harris performing best with voters who live in the suburbs and those with a college degree, two demographics where Trump has long struggled.

The good news for Trump is that the Iowa poll shows he is doing well among rural and non-college voters, two groups that fueled his 2016 victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Trump and Iowa Republicans have relied heavily on working-class voters to make the state redder.

And working-class voters hold considerable sway in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Trump hopes to win back the White House, he will need to ensure that his gains among the working class outweigh his losses among women.