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XAG/USD consolidates below $31 as Fed policy in focus

  • Silver is trading sideways below $31.00 as Fed policy takes center stage.
  • Market speculation for the Fed to start cutting interest rates aggressively remains firm.
  • US retail sales surprisingly rose to a weak 0.1% increase in August.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) remains in a tight range below the crucial $31.00 resistance in Tuesday’s North American session. The white metal is strengthening as investors have given up on focusing on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision to be announced on Wednesday.

The Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates. This would be the Fed’s first rate cut in more than four years. Investors will focus closely on the likely size of the Fed’s rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps to 4.75%-5.00% in September rose sharply to 67% from 34% a week ago.

Market speculation for the Fed to move aggressively toward policy normalization has increased recently following the release of softer-than-expected annual United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August last week.

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) bounced back after the release of US (US) retail sales data for August. Data on retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, surprisingly rose, but with a weak 0.1% increase. Economists estimated that the measure of consumer spending contracted by 0.2%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is rebounding strongly to near 101.00 after falling near a year-to-date low around 100.50.

Silver Technical Analysis

The price of silver is close to $31.00 ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision. The white metal could get a fresh edge if it manages to break the September 16 high of $31.10. The short-term outlook for the silver price is strengthening as the asset is holding above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading around $29.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising above 60.00. Another round of bullish momentum could take place if the oscillator holds at this level.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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