Haitians from Springfield, Ohio on TPS. It could end if Trump wins: experts

Trump has already called for mass deportations from the city, saying last week, “We’re going to start with Springfield and Aurora.”

TPS is temporary and discretionary

TPS is not a permanent legal status; rather, it provides protection to migrants already in the US from deportation while giving them the right to work legally.

In June, the Biden administration re-designated and extended TPS for Haiti for 18 months, allowing approximately 309,000 additional Haitians in the US to apply for protection.

Nancy Morawetz, a professor of clinical law at NYU, explained to BI that TPS is reviewed periodically — every few years — to determine whether citizens of a particular country should continue to receive protection.

“Once a country is designated, each person covered by the designation must apply for TPS status separately,” she said, noting that existing TPS holders must also renew their documents with each redesignation.

TPS is temporary and discretionary, and an administration can choose to designate or re-designate a country if it is experiencing conflict, environmental disaster, or other extraordinary conditions.

According to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the most recent extension and renaming of TPS for Haiti was based on the continued violence, insecurity and frequent natural disasters in the country.

Tom K. Wong, director of the US Immigration Policy Center, told BI in an email that because of its discretionary nature, TPS could also “decline” or “disappear” in depending on who the president is.

This means that the outcome of the presidential election in November could be crucial.

Trump would likely refuse to re-designate TPS for Haiti

“I think if Harris wins, I certainly wouldn’t take any renaming off the table,” said David Leblang, a politics professor at the University of Virginia who has published an academic paper on temporary protected status.

However, if Trump wins, Leblang told BI that is much less likely. “TPS is not likely to be re-designated for any other country,” he predicted.

Lori A. Nessel, a law professor at Seton Hall University School of Law, told BI that another Trump presidency could lead to the mass deportation of “legal, hard-working members of the community who have been given permission to live here”.

“If he becomes president, I think there’s certainly cause for concern that we could see another order ending TPS for Haitians and other nations like Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Sudan,” she added.

Nessel notes that migrants may qualify for a different type of immigration status through their jobs or marriage, or may already be in the U.S. on humanitarian parole, but she predicts that any decision to end TPS for Haitians would be met with fierce resistance.

Indeed, there was already one time when Trump tried to end TPS for certain countries during his last administration.

Legal resistance would likely follow

During the Trump administration, the Department of Homeland Security ordered the end of TPS for nearly 60,000 Haitians.

“The ensuing litigation alleged that the decision to end TPS was unlawful for many reasons,” Nessel said, with the plaintiffs arguing that it was motivated by racial discrimination, violating the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of due process and violating TPS holders. “the constitutional right to equal protection.

Ultimately, the order was rescinded by the Biden administration.

However, according to Julia Gelatt, associate director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Program, history can guide any incoming Trump administration’s approach to ending TPS.

Gelatt told BI that a second Trump administration would likely take a slower and more deliberate approach to ending TPS, potentially using a more cautious rulemaking process to make it “more litigation-proof.”

She added, “The announcement could come quickly, but I’m less sure when Haitian TPS holders will lose their protection. It could be a slower process.”

During Trump’s last term, Gelatt said uncertainty about TPS caused significant anxiety among Haitian migrants, with many trying to move to Canada to avoid deportation to Haiti.

Many had spent years building a life in the US, far from the insecurity and danger of their homeland.

“I think it’s just an important context that there has already been a wave of great concern in the Haitian community about the end of TPS,” Gelatt said.