Experts explain how hundreds of Hezbollah pagers went off simultaneously

The Iran-backed militant group blamed Israel for the deadly blasts, which targeted an extraordinary number of people and showed signs of a long-planned operation. How the attack was carried out is largely uncertain and investigators did not immediately say how the pagers were detonated. The Israeli military declined to comment.

Here’s what we know so far.

Why were pagers used in the attack?

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah previously warned members of the group not to carry mobile phones, saying they could be used by Israel to track the group’s movements. As a result, the organization uses pagers to communicate.

A Hezbollah official told The Associated Press that the detonated devices were of a new brand that the group had not used before. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, did not identify the brand name or the supplier.

Nicholas Reese, an adjunct instructor at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, explains that smartphones pose a greater risk for intercepted communications than simpler pager technology.

This type of attack will also force Hezbollah to change its communications strategies, said Reese, who previously worked as an intelligence officer, adding that survivors of Tuesday’s blasts are likely to throw away “not just their pagers, but their phones and leave their tablets. or any other electronic devices.”

How could sabotage cause these pagers to explode?

With few revelations from investigators so far, several theories emerged Tuesday about how the attack may have been carried out. Several experts who spoke to The Associated Press suggest the explosions were most likely the result of supply chain interference.

It is possible that the very small explosive devices were embedded in the pagers prior to their delivery to Hezbollah, and then all of them were remotely detonated simultaneously, possibly with a radio signal.

By the time of the attack, “the battery was probably half explosive and half live,” said Carlos Perez, director of security intelligence at TrustedSec.

A former British Army bomb disposal officer explained that an explosive device has five main components: a container, a battery, a trigger, a detonator and an explosive charge.

“A pager already has three of these,” explained the former officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he now works as a consultant with clients in the Middle East. “You should just add the detonator and the charge.”

After security camera footage surfaced on social media on Tuesday purporting to show one of the pagers exploding on a man’s hip in a Lebanese market, two munitions experts also said the blast appeared to be the result of a tiny explosive device.

“Looking at the video, the size of the detonation is similar to that caused by a single electric detonator or one incorporating an extremely small, high-explosive charge,” said Sean Moorhouse, a former British army officer and expert on explosives ordinance disposal.

This signals the involvement of a state actor, Moorhouse said. He adds that Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, the Mossad, is the most obvious suspect in having the resources to carry out such an attack.

NR Jenzen-Jones, a military weapons expert who is director of Australia’s Armament Research Services, agreed that the scale and sophistication of the attack “almost certainly points to a state actor” and that Israel has been accused of carrying out such operations in the past. Last year, the AP reported that Iran accused Israel of trying to sabotage its ballistic missile program through faulty foreign parts that could explode, damage or destroy the weapons before they can be used.

How long did this operation take?

It would take a long time to plan an attack of this magnitude. The exact specifics are still unknown, but experts who spoke to the AP shared estimates ranging from a few months to two years.

The sophistication of the attack suggests that whoever is behind it has been collecting information for a long time, Reese explained. An attack of this caliber requires building the relationships necessary to gain physical access to the pagers before they are sold; developing the technology that would be incorporated into the devices; and developing sources that can confirm that the targets were carrying pagers.

And it’s likely that the compromised pagers appeared normal to their users some time before the attack. Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels veteran and senior political risk analyst with more than 37 years of experience in the region, said he had conversations with members of Hezbollah and survivors of Tuesday’s attack. He said the pagers were purchased more than six months ago.

“The pagers worked perfectly for six months,” Magnier said. What triggered the explosion, he said, appeared to be an error message sent to all devices.

Based on his conversations with Hezbollah members, Magnier also said that many pagers did not go off, allowing the group to inspect them. They concluded that between 3 and 5 grams of a highly explosive material had been hidden or embedded in the circuits, he said.

What else could have happened?

Another possibility is that malware could have entered the pagers’ operating system – somehow causing the device’s batteries to overcharge at some point, causing them to catch fire.

According to a Hezbollah official and Lebanese security officials, the pagers first heated up and then exploded in the pockets or hands of those carrying them on Tuesday afternoon.

These pagers run on lithium-ion batteries, the Hezbollah official said, claiming the devices exploded as a result of being targeted by an Israeli “security operation,” without elaborating.

When overheated, lithium-ion batteries can smoke, melt, and even catch fire. Rechargeable lithium batteries are used in consumer products ranging from mobile phones and laptops to electric cars. Lithium battery fires can burn up to 590 C (1,100 F).

Still, Moorhouse and others noted that the images and footage seen Tuesday looked more like a small explosive charge detonating, not an overheated battery.

“A lithium-ion battery fire is one thing, but I’ve never seen one explode like this. It looks like a small explosive charge,” said Alex Plitsas, a weapons expert at the Atlantic Council.

Among those pointing to the likelihood of a supply chain attack is Jenzen-Jones, who adds that “such a large-scale operation also raises questions about targeting” — underscoring the number of causalities and the enormous impact reported so far.

“How can the person initiating the explosive be sure that a target’s child, for example, is not playing with the pager when it goes off?” he said.