Prediction: These could be the best biotech stocks by 2030

It’s easy to make predictions about how stocks will perform. On the other hand, predicting with any significant degree of accuracy is extremely difficult.

I think this is especially true of biotech stocks. It is impossible to know which pipeline programs will fail or succeed beyond investors’ wildest dreams. Despite these obstacles, I’m going to step up and make a prediction: These could be the best-performing biotech stocks through 2030, listed alphabetically and limited to biotech stocks that already have market caps of at least $5 billion .

1. Modern

You might be surprised to see Modern (MRNA 4.08%) on my list. Its share price has fallen more than 30% this year. Moderna is about 86% below its 2021 peak. However, I think this beaten-down biotech stock could realistically be one of the biggest winners for the rest of the decade.

Moderna won US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mResvia for adults 60 years of age and older on May 31, 2024. This vaccine could generate peak annual sales in the 1.5 billion dollars.

The company hopes to get 10 product approvals by 2027. It expects to file for approvals for three of them this year alone: ​​a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, a combination flu/COVID vaccine, and an RSV vaccine for adults 18 and older . at 59. I think the combined flu/COVID vaccine could be particularly successful for Moderna with Pfizerthe combination vaccine failed to meet one of its primary endpoints in a phase 3 study.

Beyond these programs, I’m most excited about the prospects for Moderna’s cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine mRNA-1647 and its cancer vaccine mRNA-4157. Results from an advanced-stage study of mRNA-1647 are expected as early as later this year. Modern too Merck is evaluating mRNA-4157 in phase 3 testing as an adjuvant treatment for melanoma in combination with Merck’s successful cancer immunotherapy, Keytruda.

2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX -1.67%) has so many potential growth drivers over the next few years that I hardly know where to begin. The biotech giant built its success on the cystic fibrosis (CF) franchise. It could soon have another powerful CF therapy on the market: The FDA has set a PDUFA date of Jan. 2, 2025, for a decision to approve Vertex’s three-drug combo, vanzacaftor.

The FDA should have more big news for Vertex just a few weeks later. It is expected to announce a decision approving suzetrigin in treating acute pain by January 30, 2025. The drug could be a huge winner as a safe and effective non-opioid pain inhibitor.

Vertex could have two other potential blockbuster drugs on the market in the next few years. Evaluates inaxaplin in a pivotal clinical trial targeting APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD). AMKD affects approximately 100,000 patients worldwide (more than CF). There are no approved therapies to treat the underlying cause of the disease. Another late-stage candidate, povetacicept, is advancing in a late-stage trial to treat IgA nephropathy, a kidney disease that affects about 130,000 patients in the US alone.

Then there’s the possibility of changing the game for Vertex. The company’s pipeline features two programs in phase 1/2 clinical testing that hold the potential to cure type 1 diabetes. Clinical results so far have looked quite promising. It is not excluded that by the end of the decade Vertex will be able to cure or at least be very close to curing a disease that affects about 3.8 million people in North America and Europe.

3. Viking therapeutics

Unlike Moderna and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Viking therapeutics (VKTX -6.20%) does not yet have any approved products on the market. I think it’s going to be a much different story for Viking over the next few years, though.

The small biopharmaceutical company reported outstanding results from a Phase 2 study of its experimental injectable obesity drug, VK2735. This program is advancing to Phase 3 testing. Viking also expects to begin Phase 2 testing of an oral version of VK2735 in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Another highly promising candidate may advance to advanced stage studies shortly after VK2735. Viking is scheduled to meet with the FDA for an end-of-phase-2 meeting in Q4 to discuss next steps for VK2809. The experimental drug has considerable potential in treating nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, also known as metabolically associated steatohepatitis.

These two programs alone could allow Viking to produce explosive growth by the end of the decade. However, the company also has another contender to keep an eye on. It is expected to report results from a phase 1b study of VK0214 in the treatment of X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy later in 2024.