Where will Nvidia stock be in a year?

It’s no secret that the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has helped propel tech stocks and the entire market to new highs over the past year. It is also no secret that the semiconductor stock Nvidia (NVDA -1.02%) has seen unprecedented buying activity — so much so that it is now the third most valuable company in the world as measured by market capitalization.

But with shares up 140% so far in 2024 and 160% over the past 12 months, could Nvidia stock be headed even higher?

Below, I’ll explore some factors that could support ideas for Nvidia stock to move both up and down over the next year. Let’s dig into the full picture and assess what might influence Nvidia’s price action. I’ll make my last case in case I see Nvidia stock land a year from now.

Nvidia stock may be on the rise, but…

Over the past few years, one of the biggest catalysts for semiconductor companies has been the demand for graphics processing units (GPUs). GPUs are an integral component for training large language models (LLM) and countless machine learning applications.

As it stands today, Nvidia is widely perceived as developing the best GPUs on the market. Its hardware lineup that includes H100 and A100 chips is used by some of the world’s largest companies. Additionally, Nvidia’s next-generation GPUs, the Blackwell series, are finally set to hit the market after a brief setback due to a design flaw.

During Nvidia’s fiscal second quarter 2025 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress said, “Demand for Blackwell platforms is far outstripping supply, and we expect that to continue next year.”

Kress said Blackwell should generate “several billion dollars” in revenue during the fourth quarter. Given the robust levels of demand for Blackwell, I think it’s reasonable to think that most of this back-end revenue will trickle down in fiscal 2026 (calendar year 2025).

As a result, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nvidia stock experience some renewed buying activity in the second half of 2024 and the first few months of 2025.

Image source: Getty Images.

… this increase could be short-lived

Even though Nvidia shares a nice track record, I think competitive concerns could dampen any euphoria around the stock.

While Nvidia faces direct competition from the likes of Advanced microdevicesthe company also faces growing opposition from other megacap tech companies. Some examples include:

1. Amazon: While Amazon is mostly known for its e-commerce marketplace, the company is a massive force in the world of cloud computing thanks to Amazon Web Services (AWS). Over the past year, Amazon has invested billions in AI-related initiatives. Two big areas where Amazon has doubled down on its AI vision are an $11 billion data center project in Indiana, as well as developing its own training and inference chips.
2. Meta platforms: Meta is a known Nvidia client. According to comments made by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, a good portion of Meta’s capital expenditure (capex) budget was directed towards purchasing H100 GPUs. However, Meta also designed its own chip, called the Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA). I see this as a move to migrate away from Nvidia over time and keep as much of the Meta technology internalized as possible.
3. adze: Another known Nvidia “Magnificent Seven” customer is Tesla. The company’s CEO Elon Musk cited Nvidia’s H100 GPUs as a critical piece of infrastructure in training the company’s self-driving software. However, during Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call, Musk said the company may have to compete with Nvidia in the future because “the demand for Nvidia hardware is so high that it’s often difficult to get GPUs -hate”.

There are some important ideas to unpack here. First, as more chips enter the competitive landscape, it’s natural to think that Nvidia’s growth could continue to slow. Moreover, a potentially bigger problem is that many companies looking to disrupt Nvidia’s dominance are their own customers.

To me, GPUs will eventually be seen as commoditized pieces of hardware. This will essentially force Nvidia to compete on price, and as many of its biggest sources of growth look to move away from reliance on its hardware, the company’s sales and profits could begin to witness a dramatic deceleration.

This could lead to a normalization of Nvidia’s share price as its growth prospects become less attractive.

So where will Nvidia stock be a year from now?

Besides competition, I see a few other things that could affect Nvidia’s stock price. As I expressed recently, I have some major questions about the company’s $50 billion share buyback. I don’t see this as an efficient use of capital allocation and think it could feed into a larger narrative that has a negative impact on the stock.

Additionally, as murmurs continue about a possible Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into antitrust concerns, it’s quite possible that some investors will dump Nvidia stock out of emotional fear alone.

I will admit that buybacks and the possibility of government intervention are longer term issues around Nvidia, but I think so ideas of both could hurt the stock in the short term.

At the end of the day, I think Nvidia stock will experience a period of transient buying activity, driven by another Blackwell-inspired rally. However, I see these gains as short-lived as competition increases and questions remain about the company’s growth tactics. Because of this, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nvidia stock is relatively flat overall a year from now.