Why this cycle might be different from Investing.com

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note Wednesday that Apple’s (NASDAQ: times are not yet predictive of overall demand.

According to the bank, delivery times for the iPhone 16 have doubled since pre-orders began, but are still 33% lower than last year’s iPhone 15 cycle.

However, they point out that early times have limited predictive power and the trajectory over the next 10 days will be more critical in assessing demand.

For example, Morgan Stanley says delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro Max are 18 days shorter than last year’s model, and delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro are 8 days shorter. In contrast, delivery times for the iPhone 16 Plus increased by 10 days compared to previous cycles, indicating variable demand between models.

Analysts point to two factors influencing this cycle: increased supply, with Apple producing 5 percent more iPhone 16 units than last year, and the delayed release of Apple Intelligence, a key feature that could change consumer upgrades later in the year.

“What matters most is the evolution of iPhone 16 delivery times over the next 10 days,” analysts say. They note that historically, lead times extend until the first in-store availability date before gradually decreasing.

In the near-term, the bank sees a potential downside in the stock to around $200, but views any near-term estimate cut or underperformance in the stock as buying opportunities.

“We would buy any potential estimate cuts as multi-year AI updates are a moment, not an if,” said the analysts, who maintained their overweight rating and $273 price target on the stock.