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XAG/USD rises above $31 after Fed rate cut decision

  • Silver price rises above $31.00 following Fed policy announcement.
  • The Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps to 4.75%-5.00%.
  • The Fed’s top rate cut signals that inflation is on track to return to the bank’s 2% target.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is offering a sharp rally above the crucial $31.00 resistance in Thursday’s European session. The white metal is strengthening as the US dollar (USD) gives up its early gains and declines. The US dollar weakens as the dust settles after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, in which the central bank announced its first interest rate cut in four years.

Historically, lower Fed interest rates bode well for non-yielding assets like silver because they lower the opportunity cost of holding an investment in them.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is down near 100.60 following the Fed’s 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut to 4.75%-5.00 %. The Fed was expected to cut interest rates, but traders were divided on the potential size of the rate cut. A top rate cut by the Fed gives a clear indication that price pressures are about to return to the bank’s 2% target.

For interest rate guidance, policymakers see the federal funds rate heading toward 4.4% by the end of the year, suggesting there will be at least a 25 bps drop in interest rates. On the contrary, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the central bank will reduce the rest of monetary policies by 75 bps this year.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver price is strengthening as it provided a break of the downtrend line drawn from the May 20 high of $32.50. The asset is expected to extend its rally towards the previous high of $32.50. The upward-sloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $29.50 suggests that the near-term outlook is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 60.00. Another round of bullish momentum could occur if the oscillator holds around this level.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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