XRP could rise as Grayscale XRP Trust NAV rises to $11.49, likely catalyst for Ripple

• XRP is trading at $0.5879, climbing closer to the psychologically important $0.60 level.
• Ripple prepares for stablecoin launch even as SEC chief maintains tough stance on crypto regulation.
• Grayscale XRP Trust NAV climbs to $11.49, suggesting increasing institutional demand for the asset.

Ripple (XRP) has gained 2.3% since the beginning of the week. The altcoin’s gains are likely fueled by key market drivers, which include stablecoin Ripple USD (RUSD), the performance of the Grayscale XRP Trust, and demand for the altcoin among institutional investors.

Grayscale XRP Trust’s net asset value (NAV), a measure of intrinsic value per share, is calculated at the end of each business day, according to the official website. Although NPV does not influence the price of the underlying asset, its trend helps identify the general direction in which the share price is headed. Investors use the NAV to determine how the fund’s value has changed, presumably as an indication of its demand among institutional investors.

Additionally, in a recent interview, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said that crypto is not “incompatible” with current securities law.

Daily Market Drivers: XRP could recover based on these catalysts

• XRP is nearing the psychologically important $0.6000 level, trading at $0.5843 early Thursday.
• Ripple, the cross-border payment remittance firm, recently shared its plans to launch the Ripple USD (RUSD) stablecoin. The stablecoin plans to connect global firms and financial institutions, as well as enable cross-border payments through its stablecoin on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and the Ethereum mainnet.
• XRP holders await release date for stablecoin, further regulatory clarity expected from Securities and Exchange Commission for RUSD launch in US.
• The second market driver is Grayscale’s single-asset mutual fund, the performance of the Grayscale XRP Trust. The official website shows the NAV at $11.49. The stock rose to a peak of $11.77 on Tuesday earlier this week.

NAV per share for Grayscale XRP Trust

• The SEC vs. Ripple is the third market engine, while the trial ended with what appears to be a partial win for both sides, there is the likelihood of an appeal from the regulator. There is no comment on the appeal from the SEC. However, in a recent interview on CNBC on Wednesday, Chairman Gary Gensler reiterated the clarity provided by existing securities laws and said “there is nothing in the field inconsistent with the basic protections that are in the securities laws.” .
• Even though XRP has legal clarity as a non-security in transactions on secondary market platforms or crypto exchanges, it has been treated as collateral in its sales to institutions. Additionally, if the SEC appeals Judge Analisa Torres’ July 2023 decision, it could strip the altcoin of its non-security status. The “what ifs” make XRP traders wary of the regulator’s every move.

Technical Analysis: XRP Poised For Close To 6% Gains If $0.5500 Support Holds

XRP tried to break out of its downtrend several times in July, August and September to no avail. The altcoin traded in a limited range between the August 7 high of $0.6434 and the September 6 low of $0.5026.

XRP has held steady above support at $0.5026 for nearly 12 days. The asset found support at $0.5500. If XRP holds above this level, a rally to $0.6217 is likely. This would mark gains of almost 6% in the altcoin.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator supports the optimistic thesis. The green histogram bars above the neutral line signal an underlying positive momentum in the XRP price.

XRP/USDT Daily Chart

A daily candlestick close below $0.5500, a key support for the asset could invalidate the bullish thesis. XRP could sweep liquidity in the disequilibrium zone between $0.5413 and $0.5556.