Fedspeak, Powell and the PCE get all the attention

The greenback ended its third straight week of losses, the slide deepening after the Federal Reserve’s jumbo rate cut on September 18. The currency’s weakness persisted as investors weighed the chances of more rate cuts later in the year, while the likelihood of a weak rate cut. the landing of the US economy also favored the appetite for risk-related assets.

The US dollar index (DXY) remained under strong pressure for a third straight week, touching levels last seen in the summer of 2023 around 100.20 shortly after the Fed’s interest rate decision. The US case starts on September 23 with the release of the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI. Next up on September 24 is the FHFA Home Price Index, followed by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence and the API report on US crude oil inventories. The usual weekly mortgage applications as measured by MBA, New Home Sales and the EIA report on US crude oil inventories will be due on September 25th. September 26th comes Durable Goods Orders, final revision of Q2 GDP Growth Rate, pending home sales. , and weekly initial jobless claims. PCE takes center stage on September 27, followed by Personal Income, Personal Spending, Advanced Goods Trade Balance and final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

EUR/USD resumed its weekly advance and breached the 1.1100 barrier with some conviction, always against the backdrop of continued US dollar weakness. Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing and Services flash PMI and EMU are scheduled for September 23, while Germany’s IFO Business Climate will be held on September 24. The German Labor Market Report is scheduled for September 27, followed by EMU Economic Sentiment, Final Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment and Consumer Inflation Expectations.

GBP/USD outperformed its risk-on counterpart this week, rising well north of 1.3300 for the first time since February 2022 amid increased appetite for the risk complex, cautious BoE holding and firm data from the United Kingdom. The S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are scheduled for September 23, along with the CBI Industrial Trends Orders. September 26 will see the release of Auto Production figures, while CBI Distribution Transactions is due to be released on September 27.

USD/JPY’s steep decline at the start of July seems to have met a fairly decent challenge around the 139.50 area amid re-emergence of trade risk and renewed dovishness around the BoJ. Preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs from Jibun Bank are due on September 24, followed by the release of BoJ minutes and foreign bond investment figures on September 25. In addition, the Tokyo CPI comes on September 26, while the final Coincident and Leading Economic Index. The index is expected on September 27.

AUD/USD finally broke through the 0.6800 hurdle and advanced to levels last traded at the end of 2023 amid firm appetite for the risk-on universe, a weak US dollar and some modest price recovery the goods. The Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services flash PMI will be held on 223 September, while the RBA will take center stage on 24 September. The RBA’s monthly CPI is due on 25 September, and the RBA’s Financial Stability Review will take place on 27 September.

Anticipating the economic outlook: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak on September 23, along with the ECB’s Cipollone and Elderson.
• The Fed’s Bowman and the ECB’s Nagel will speak on September 24.
• The Fed’s Kugler, the ECB’s McCaul and the BoE’s Greene are due to speak on September 25.
• The ECB’s McCaul, De Guindos, Buch, Elderson, Schnabel and Lagarde will all speak on September 26, along with the Fed’s Barr, Bowman, Cook, Collins, Kugler, Williams, Kashkari and Powell.
• The Fed’s Bowman is expected to speak on September 27, followed by the ECB’s Cipollone, Nagel and Lane.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policy

• The RBA and Hungary’s central bank (MNB) will meet on September 24.
• The Riksbank will decide on rates on September 25.
• The SNB and Banxico will meet on September 26.