Armenia accuses Russia of undermining sovereignty

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently announced that Russia is fine with letting Armenia and Azerbaijan conclude their own peace deal without Kremlin mediation. But it seems Russia can’t help but meddle as Moscow tries to maintain a level of controlling influence in the Caucasus.

Armenian law enforcement officials announced on September 18 that they had disrupted a Russian-sponsored effort to foment an uprising aimed at toppling the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and installing more Kremlin-friendly leadership in Yerevan. Three people were reportedly in custody and authorities were still looking for four other suspects linked to the alleged plot.

According to the preliminary official account, the suspects were recruiting Armenian men to join an armed group that would serve as the backbone of an attempted coup. The recruits were allegedly being sent to a training camp in Russia. Armenian security services are said to have discovered the plot after receiving tips from individuals who were approached to join the armed group but refused.

Amidst the whirlwind of a Russian-sponsored coup against Pashinyan, the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process maintains a “stop-start” dynamic.

During the latest round of talks, Armenia proposed to sign a peace agreement on points the two sides have already agreed on, with remaining differences to be settled later. According to Pashinyan, the countries have agreed on 13 out of 16 points that are currently included in the draft peace agreement.

The Armenian proposal followed a recent agreement between Yerevan and Baku to cancel talks on the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed transit route that would link Azerbaijan proper to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. Differences with Zangezur had been one of the major impediments to a peace agreement.

Azerbaijan categorically rejected Armenia’s idea. “For the peace agreement to be sustainable and successful, it is necessary to resolve the controversial issues that remain in a number of areas,” said the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Aykhan Hajizade, quoted by the Report.az publication.

The main outstanding issue at this stage is Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia amend its constitution to clearly recognize Baku’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, which the Azerbaijani army recaptured in September 2023.

The Zangezur issue has played a central role in the escalation of hostility between Russia and Armenia in recent weeks. The Armenian-Azerbaijani decision to cancel negotiations on Zangezur angered Russia, which would have gained responsibility for maintaining the security of the transit route, thereby giving Moscow a major lever of influence over geopolitical developments in the Caucasus. For example, Russia could use its peacekeeping role in any Zangezur corridor as leverage in trying to disrupt or prevent Armenia from deepening economic and security relations with the United States and the European Union.

Now, with the Zangezur Corridor a distant possibility and the war in Ukraine draining Moscow of resources, Russia is scrambling to find a way to thwart Armenian efforts to complete a geopolitical pivot to the West. Yerevan’s alienation from Russia began after the Azeri recapture of Karabakh, as Armenian leaders accused Russia of failing to meet security guarantees to defend Armenia’s sovereignty.

Of Eurasianet.org

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