Florida is bracing for a potential Gulf hurricane strike this week

The US Gulf Coast, from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, is at hurricane risk by the end of the week as a period of unsettled weather in the Atlantic becomes more organized.

Currently a vortex of storms in the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, the system has a 70 percent chance of becoming the next Atlantic storm by Wednesday, the US National Hurricane Center said.

Forecast models predict it will cross the gap between Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, heading north through the warm waters of the Gulf before reaching somewhere between Bay St. Louis, Mississippi – east of New Orleans – to the west coast of Florida. It would be the fourth named storm to hit the continental US this year.

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“As it moves, it’s going to encounter ideal conditions,” Tyler Roys, senior meteorologist at commercial forecasting AccuWeather Inc., said in an interview. “We are very concerned about the rapid escalation from Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.”

The storm, which would be named Helene if it continues to strengthen, threatens to be the first this year to hit the continental US as a major hurricane with winds of 110 miles per hour or more. That would make it at least a Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

The storm’s track will be determined by a larger low-pressure system in the central U.S. that could drive it ashore anywhere from southern Mississippi to western Florida, Roys said. This would currently keep it east of many offshore oil and gas operations near Louisiana and Texas.

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Meanwhile, a second system in the Pacific could bring humanitarian disaster to Mexico’s Oaxaca state. Tropical Storm John formed about 130 miles south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico, with winds of 45 miles per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said. The storm is forecast to track northeast into the Mexican state of Oaxaca Tuesday night into Wednesday.

There is a chance of more than 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain in the mountainous region, leading to deadly flooding and landslides, Roys said. It can also become a hurricane before it hits.

“We’re very nervous,” Roys said.

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