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WTI is consolidating above the mid-$70.00s, staying close to its one-month high set on Monday

  • WTI is struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid mixed fundamentals.
  • A new escalation of conflicts in the Middle East underlies the commodity.
  • Concerns about the global economic slowdown are acting as a tailwind for oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude prices are hovering in a narrow trading band, just above the midpoint of $70.00 in Asian trading on Tuesday, and remain well within striking distance of a near three-week peak reached the previous day .

Israel’s airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah sites in Lebanon killed nearly 500 people on Monday and raise the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East. This may impact supply in the key oil-producing region, which, along with concerns that a tropical storm could impact US output, are proving to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the black liquid .

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is struggling to capitalize on its recent bounce back from the YTD low hit following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) jumbo interest rate cut last week and bets for more aggressive policy easing ahead. This is seen to support demand for USD-denominated commodities and provide some support to crude oil prices.

However, the upside remains capped amid a bleak global economic outlook. Fears resurfaced after flash PMIs released on Monday showed that business activity in the eurozone unexpectedly contracted sharply in September. This comes on top of fuel consumption concerns in China – the world’s biggest oil importer – and acts as a headwind for the commodity.

The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop calls for some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around crude oil prices as traders choose to wait for more clues on the Fed’s rate cut path. The focus will therefore remain on speeches by influential FOMC members and the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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