Why could XMR fall by 10%?

• Monero price is facing rejection from the daily resistance level of $180.79, going lower.
• On-chain data paints a bearish picture as the XMR long-short ratio is below one, a one-month low.
• A daily candlestick close above $180.79 would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Monero (XMR), a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, continued to decline on Tuesday after facing resistance barrier rejection on Monday. On-chain data suggests bearish sentiment among XMR traders as its long-short ratio trades below one, suggesting a fall in Monero price going forward.

Monero price could react lower to key resistance

Monero price has retested and struggled several times around its daily resistance level of $180.79 since September 20, which fell 2.78% on Monday. As of Tuesday, it continues to trade lower at $169.13, breaking below the uptrend line (drawn by joining several early August lows).

If daily resistance at $180.79 continues to hold as resistance and Monero closes below the uptrend line, the decline could extend 10% to retest its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 152, $73 (drawn from an early August low of $135.95 to a September high). of $179.84).

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator further supports Monero’s decline, signaling a bearish crossover on the daily chart. The MACD line (blue line) has moved below the signal line (yellow line), giving a sell signal. It also shows red histogram bars below the neutral zero line, suggesting that the price of Monero may experience a downward push.

Additionally, the relative strength index on the daily chart is trading at 48, below its neutral level of 50, and points to the downside. A break below the neutral level generally indicates that the bearish momentum is gaining traction.

XMR/USDT Daily Chart

Monero’s On-chain data also supports a bearish outlook. Coinglass’ Monero long-short ratio is 0.766, a one-month low. This sub-one ratio reflects bearish sentiment in the market as more traders are betting on lower asset prices.

Monero long-short ratio chart

However, the bearish thesis would be invalidated if Monero’s daily candlestick breaks and closes above the daily resistance level of $180.79. This scenario could see the price of Monero rise to retest the psychologically important $190 level.