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XAG/USD reaches near $31 on several tailwinds

  • Silver rises to near $31.00 on dovish Fed bets, Chinese stimulus and Middle East tensions.
  • Fed officials remain concerned about the outlook for the US labor market.
  • Silver price is maintaining the downtrend line

The price of silver (XAG/USD) climbs to near $31.00 in the European session on Tuesday. The white metal is gaining on strong speculation for a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, China’s monetary stimulus announcement and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps to 4.25%-4.50% in November rose to 51% from 29% a week ago. This affected the US dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is down near 100.80. Historically, a weaker US dollar makes silver prices a cheap bet for investors.

Market expectations for big Fed interest rate cuts have strengthened as recent comments from policymakers indicated they are concerned about deteriorating job growth.

Meanwhile, China’s top authorities announced a series of stimulus measures to lift its economy. This would improve the demand for silver as a metal as it has applications in various industries such as electric vehicles and wires and cables etc.

In the Middle East region, escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have enhanced Silver’s demand as a safe haven. Conflicts in the Middle East deepened after Israel’s airstrike in southern Lebanon on Monday.

Technical analysis of silver

Silver price is strengthening as it holds the break of the downtrend line from the May 21 high of $32.50. The upward-sloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $29.85 suggests that the near-term outlook for the silver price is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to hold in the 60.00-80.00 range. A bullish impulse would trigger if the oscillator succeeds in doing so.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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