The key issues of the 2024 presidential campaign

Vaseline2 weeks ago

0 2 minutes read

The key issues of the 2024 presidential campaign

To help you understand what’s happening in US politics and the presidential election, and what we expect to happen in the future, our experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you updated with the latest developments and predictions (Get a free edition of the Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You’ll get all the latest news by subscribing first, but we’ll publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days later online. Here is the latest…

As the presidential candidates prepare for November, their platforms are finally in place — a mix of realistic proposals and lofty promises. Here are the main issues to watch out for. Note that these are only predictions, not endorsements.

With control of Congress likely to be split between the parties unless Republicans can win slim majorities in both chambers, expect an emphasis on executive action.

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Trade
Donald Trump wants to raise tariffs in general, but especially on imports from China, expanding the tariffs he imposed as president. The trade proposal he has promoted most often: a 10 percent global tariff, plus a 60 percent tariff on China. Experts believe Trump could bypass Congress with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the president broad control over trade and other transactions after a state of emergency is declared. Otherwise, he will have to either limit the scope of the tariffs or hope he has enough votes in Congress for them.

Kamala Harris would maintain the tariffs imposed by Trump and continued under President Biden, a sign of how much Trump has changed the consensus on the issue. But it would not expand them aggressively, instead opting for more targeted restrictions on goods seen as potentially threatening to domestic industries, similar to those recently imposed on electric vehicles in China.

Immigration
Another issue where the president has a lot of ability to act unilaterally is immigration.

Trump has vowed to undertake a mass deportation effort targeting up to 20 million undocumented people in the U.S. The question is, will he? Expect the former president to test the legal limits of his authority if elected this fall. His first-term deportation efforts have often failed in court, and this plan would require an even greater commitment: detention centers and the mobilization of troops.

Instead, Harris’ immigration ambitions would depend heavily on Congress. She continues to support bipartisan Senate legislation that failed this spring that would have allowed Uncle Sam to hire more immigration judges and asylum officers, among other things, in exchange for tighter limits on who can receive asylum.

tax
The provisions of the 2017 tax bill that expire in 2025 are likely to be extended in some form regardless of who is elected president, but with some notable variations. Among the provisions of the tax legislation due to expire next year:

One big difference between Trump and Harris: the corporate tax rate. Trump wants to lower it further from the current 21%, while Harris wants to increase it to 28%. Both also have many other priorities that require influence in Congress.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on economic and business trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s ahead to get the most out of your investments and your money. Subscribe to the Kiplinger Letter.

Vaseline2 weeks ago

0 2 minutes read

Vaseline

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