Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets By Reuters

(Reuters) – The Fed finally cut its interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said was meant to show commitment decision makers to maintain a low unemployment rate now that inflation had eased.

In addition to approving the half-percentage-point cut, Fed policymakers estimated the benchmark interest rate would drop another half-percentage point by the end of this year, a full percentage point next year and half a percentage point in 2026, although they cautioned that the outlook going forward is inherently uncertain.

Here are some major banks’ forecasts for economic growth, inflation and how certain asset classes are expected to perform:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

USA 10 years

the target yield

aim

Goldman Sachs 5,600 1.08 150 7.20

3.85%

Morgan Stanley 5,400 (for 1,140 7.5

June 2025)

UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25

wealth

management*

Wells Fargo 5,300-5,500 3.75%-4.25% 1.06-1.10 156-160

Investment

Institute

Barclays 5,600 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

JP Morgan 4,200 1.13 146 7.25

3.55%

BofA Global 5,400 3.75% 1.12 151 7.38

Research

Deutsche Bank 5,750 4.60% 1.07 135

Citigroup 5,600 4.20% 1.02 135 7.25

HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10

Oppenheimer

5,900

UBS Global 5,600 4.0% 1.12 145 7.10

Research*

Evercore ISI 6,000

RBC 5,700

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions of the UBS Group

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US INFLATION

US consumer prices rose slightly in August, but core inflation showed some resilience amid higher costs for housing and other services.

US Inflation (annualized y/y to 2024)

Title CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.6% 2.6%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%

Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%

Investment

Institute

Barclays 2.9% 2.6%

JPMorgan 2.50% 2.50%

BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%

Research

Deutsche Bank 3.10%

Citigroup 2.0% 2.7%

HSBC 3.4%

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Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL USA CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.7% 2.8% 0.7% 1.1% 6.9%

Sachs

4.7%

Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%

wealth

management*

Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 5.0% 0.3% 1.1% 6.2%

JPMorgan 2.6% 4.6% 6.5%

0.7%

2.7% 1.1%

BofA Global 3.2% 2.7% 0.7% 1.1% 7.6%

Research

4.8%

Deutsche 3.2% 2.7% 4.9% 0.9% 1.2% 7.0%

Banking

Citigroup 2.4% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% 7.3%

4.7%

HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%

UBS Global 3.1% 2.5% 4.6% 0.6% 1.1% 7.0%

Research*