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XAG/USD holds gains near $32 on higher Fed high rate bets

  • Silver clings to gains near $32.00 as Fed high rate bets increase.
  • The next move of the US dollar will be guided by the core US PCE inflation data.
  • The silver price is looking to recover the 10-year high of $32.50.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is capturing gains near key resistance at $32.00 in the New York session on Wednesday. The white metal remains strong as the US dollar remains under pressure amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver another sizeable interest rate cut at either of the two remaining policy meetings this year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is near a yearly low of 100.20. Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields are rising to nearly 3.77%. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets such as silver. But in this case, the price of Silver remains firm.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is expected to further cut its key lending rates by 75 bps over the rest of the year, suggesting there will be a 50 bps rate cut and a 25 bps cut. Data on 30-day federal funds futures prices showed the likelihood the Fed would cut interest rates by a wider margin than usual in November rose to 59 percent from 37 percent a week ago.

Going forward, investors will focus on core data on the United States (US) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due out on Friday. Economists estimate that the annual measure of inflation rose to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in July.

Silver Technical Analysis

The price of silver is nearing a decade high of $32.50. The white metal strengthened after breaking the downtrend line from the May 21 high of $32.50. The upward-sloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $30.20 suggests that the near-term outlook for the silver price is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to hold in the 60.00-80.00 range. A bullish impulse would trigger if the oscillator succeeds in doing so.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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