Hurricane Helene will become a Cat 3, with initial estimates of $3 billion to $6 billion in insured losses

Hurricane Helene is expected to hit Florida as a Category 3, and a property data firm estimates that nearly 25,000 residential properties with a combined $5.6 billion in rebuilding costs are at risk of flooding — a reinsurer estimates insured losses from 3 to 6 billion dollars. billion.

CoreLogic’s estimate assumes Helene will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane and maintain its current forecast track.

Forecasts show that Helene will make landfall with similar strength to Hurricane Idalia in 2023, but farther west. The final insured loss impact of Hurricane Idalia was less than $2 billion and was limited by the remoteness of the landfall location.

Helene’s path over more populated regions means impacts are likely to be more significant, according to CoreLogic.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting maximum sustained winds in excess of 125 mph before landfall, with the potential for higher gusts.

The majority of at-risk homes identified in the CoreLogic estimate (17,587) are in the Homosassa Springs metro area, while 7,073 are in the Tallahassee metro area.

An opinion from Gallagher Re estimates potential losses between $3 billion and $6 billion.

“Landfall in Florida’s Big Bend or Panhandle region as a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) has historically resulted in insured losses in the low single-digit billions (USD),” the consultant states. “But Helene is not a typical storm. Given Helene’s very large wind radius, this would still bring hurricane-force wind gusts and large storm surge to coastal areas in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, tropical storm-force winds in the most much of peninsular Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and southern Appalachia. This initially suggests that losses in Helene’s private insurance market should be in the range of $3 billion to $6 billion.

In the unlikely scenario that Helene unexpectedly moves further east toward Tampa, the cost to the private insurance market and federally administered insurance programs could be expected to exceed $10 billion, according to Gallagher Re.

According to the National Hurricane Center, storm surge flooding along Florida’s Big Bend coast could reach up to 20 feet above ground level.