Analysis-Japan’s PM candidate Koizumi talks change, but rivals could alter US diplomacy.

By Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) – In the race to become Japan’s next leader, young contender Shinjiro Koizumi has positioned himself as a candidate for change, but his veteran rivals Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi are advocating policies that could shake things up diplomatically .

The Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war period, will choose a new leader on Friday to replace Fumio Kishida as prime minister.

This comes at a crucial time for Tokyo as it seeks to deepen ties with longtime ally Washington and solidify a perennially rocky relationship with South Korea in an effort to present a united front against an increasingly more assertive.

Koizumi, 43, the US-educated heir to a prominent LDP dynasty, promises to usher in a generational change in political leadership but remains at ease with a relationship with the US that shapes Japan’s foreign policy.

Koizumi is in a closely fought race with two experienced candidates who seem more willing to fend off Washington – former defense minister Ishiba, 67, who is fighting his fifth and what he calls his last leadership election; and Takaichi, 63, the nation’s economic security minister.

“Among the current top three candidates, Koizumi would probably be the most favorable if the US had a say,” said Jeffrey Hornung, Japan director for RAND’s National Security Research Division. “He’s young and has no governing experience, so the easiest way is to go ahead with what’s already working.”

Koizumi demonstrated his close ties to Washington in July when he spent a day surfing with the US ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel.

While analysts say Koizumi would seek continuity, Ishiba could try to achieve a more independent foreign policy from Washington, while Takaichi could revive historic animosity toward Seoul.

Some recent opinion polls show them ahead of their younger rival in the PLD party which will decide Friday’s election, one of the most unpredictable in decades due to the waning influence of powerful factions within the party and a record number of nine candidates.

Whoever wins, the U.S. election in November could have a bigger impact on Japan-U.S. ties, especially if any second term for Donald Trump reinvigorates pressure on allies to pay more for U.S. protection or subjects them to trade tariffs.

A State Department spokesman said the US looks forward to working with the next Japanese leader.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has faced political backlash for pursuing security cooperation with Japan, told Reuters he was confident Kishida’s successor “will agree to continue developing our bilateral relations.”

A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing was willing to work with a prime minister who would promote a “stable China-Japan relationship.”

CONTENTITIVE ISSUES

Neither candidate will abandon Kishida’s plan to double Japan’s defense spending to deter China from using military force in East Asia or withdraw from an alliance with the US that has guaranteed Japan’s security for decades.

But both Ishiba, a rare dissident within the LDP, and Takaichi, a hardline conservative, could complicate relations with the US at a sensitive time.

Washington is upgrading its military command structure in Japan for the first time in decades, expanding security cooperation in semiconductors and military technology, and pushing Japan-South Korea détente to help contain Chinese power.

“Ishiba may try to push the boundaries on contentious matters,” said Nick Szechenyi, a Japan expert and deputy director for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Among them is an agreement governing the status of US bases in Japan, which are home to the largest concentration of US forces overseas.

On the campaign trail in Okinawa, Ishiba said he would seek more oversight of how Washington uses those bases. He also wants Washington to give Japan a say in how it will use nuclear weapons in Asia.

Another Ishiba campaign proposal for Japan to lead the creation of an “Asian NATO” has already been dismissed as rash by US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Daniel Kritenbrink.

In an interview with Reuters, Ishiba also criticized US opposition to Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel, a politically sensitive deal in a key state in electoral swings, saying it unfairly portrayed Japan as a national security risk.

Kishida declined to address what he says is a matter for the companies involved to resolve, and Koizumi urged his party colleagues to avoid making comments that could be seen as interfering in the US presidential election.

If Takaichi wins the leadership race and becomes Japan’s first female prime minister, she could spell trouble for the US-led effort to bring Tokyo and Seoul closer, with her promise to visit the controversial Yasukuni war shrine.

Japanese leaders in 2013 stopped going to the shrine, which commemorates war dead, including those convicted by an allied war crimes tribunal after World War II. This followed criticism from the US and condemnation from South Korea and other nations that view the site as a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression.

“She is the hope of conservative LDP members now,” said Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a think tank in Tokyo. “They are still very skeptical about the future of the Japan-Korea relationship.”