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GBP/JPY draws some buyers above 193.00, focus shifts to Tokyo CPI data

  • GBP/JPY rose to around 193.10 in the first European session on Thursday.
  • Uncertainty about the BoJ’s interest rate path is undermining the JPY.
  • The BoE’s Greene said he preferred a cautious approach to cutting interest rates.

GBP/JPY cross extends rally to near 193.10 during Thursday’s European session. The prospect of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delaying an interest rate hike this year is weighing on the Japanese yen (JPY). Traders will be keeping an eye on Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September due on Friday.

JPY loses momentum after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the Japanese central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates. According to minutes of the BoJ meeting published on Thursday, policymakers were divided on how quickly the central bank should raise interest rates further, citing uncertainty over when the next increase in borrowing costs would occur. Several board members noted that it would be “appropriate” for the central bank to “begin gradually adjusting the significantly low policy interest rate.”

On the other hand, growing speculation that the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate cut cycle is more likely to be slower than previously expected is providing some support for the British pound (GBP). BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he was “very encouraged” by the downward trajectory of inflation and expected the trajectory of interest rates to be gradually downward. Meanwhile, BoE policymakers Megan Greene said on Wednesday she preferred a “cautious approach” to cutting interest rates, warning of risks from strong wage growth and economic activity.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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