Russia expects strong growth in global oil demand through 2050

Russia expects global oil demand to rise by at least 5 percent from current levels by 2050, with demand increasing by up to 7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, the deputy prime minister said on Thursday Russian Minister of Energy, Pavel Sorokin.

Russia is ready to provide additional volumes of crude oil when needed, Sorokin said on the sidelines of an energy forum in Russia.

By 2030, global oil consumption will rise between 5 million bpd and 7 million bpd, or 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent more than today’s demand, according to the Russian official.

Russia plans to pump 540 million metric tons of oil, or 10.84 million bpd, in 2030 under its baseline scenario, Sorokin said today. This, of course, will depend on Moscow’s obligations in the OPEC+ production deal, he added.

Last year, Russia’s oil production was 531 million tons, or 10.66 million bpd.

“These 540 million tons are a baseline scenario with a disclaimer, given our cooperation with our OPEC+ partners and taking into account market needs,” Sorokin said at the Russian Energy Week forum.

“We have no objective to flood the market if it doesn’t require it. But (it works) the other way around too, to provide the market with additional resources if needed,” the official added.

Russia’s demand growth estimate is very close to that of its OPEC partners in the OPEC+ agreement.

In the new 2024 World Oil Outlook (WOO) published earlier this week, OPEC expects global oil demand to have grown from about 103 million bpd now to more than 120 million bpd by 2050.

Over the long term, global oil demand is expected to grow by nearly 18 million bpd, rising from 102.2 million bpd in 2023 to 120.1 million bpd in 2050, OPEC said in its outlook.

The cartel also noted in the report’s foreword, “What the Outlook points out is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas has no bearing on the facts.”

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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