OPEC+ confirms it has no specific price target for crude oil

Despite recent rumours, OPEC+ sources have confirmed that there is no specific price target for crude, including the oft-discussed $100 per barrel. This comes in response to speculation that Saudi Arabia, a key player in the group, could allow lower prices to regain market share by increasing production. Anonymous OPEC+ members who spoke to the Argus today quickly dismissed these claims, insisting their strategy is driven by market fundamentals such as the five-year average of global crude inventories, rather than a set price.

A Financial Times report suggesting Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial $100 oil price target has been met with firm denials from unnamed OPEC+ insiders. They clarified that the $100 figure refers to Saudi Arabia’s break-even price estimates to cover its expenses, not a price target for global crude. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has set the break-even point for Saudi oil at $96.20 for 2024, stressing that this figure is indicative, but not definitive, of the Kingdom’s financial strategy.

OPEC+ remained focused on balancing the market through voluntary production cuts. The group had originally planned to start rolling back those cuts in October, but concerns about global economic weakness, particularly in China, led to a two-month delay. Despite pressure on countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan to meet production targets, OPEC+ insists its decision-making will continue to be guided by economic realities rather than the pursuit of short-term gains in market share.

As the global oil market grapples with uncertainty, all eyes are on whether OPEC+ will continue with liquidation cuts in December. While some observers speculate about a change in strategy, sources say any decision will be based on the latest market data, ensuring discipline remains central to the group’s approach.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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