Israel’s air war could put Hezbollah in a deadlock against its most threatening missiles

“The Israeli military campaign is expected to persist in the coming weeks, starting with an extended phase of aerial bombardment targeting Lebanon,” said Freddy Khoueiry, global security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at risk intelligence company RANE. for Business Insider. .

“If these efforts fail to achieve the desired strategic results – which is likely, the risk of a subsequent phase involving ground operations increases,” Khoueiry said.

Israel launched Operation Northern Arrows on Monday, attacking 1,500 Hezbollah targets in 200 areas of Lebanon, destroying several rocket launchers, weapons caches and drones, using 250 fighter jets. The targets are mainly in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. Lebanese media reported on Wednesday that Israel also attacked villages north of the Lebanese capital Beirut.

“Israel appears to have been able to devastate Hezbollah’s missile arsenal and launch capability in Lebanon with airstrikes and certainly decimated IRGC The command and control structure of the (Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary) network in Lebanon,” independent Middle East analyst Kyle Orton told BI.

The air war seeks to destroy Hezbollah’s long-range missile arsenaltheir most threatening weapons to the Israelis, which Iran offered as a last resort threat to protect its nuclear program.

“Both an aerial bombardment campaign and ground incursions, while having an impact, are unlikely to completely dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure or eliminate its long-term operational capability,” RANE’s Khoueiry added.

“Hezbollah is a much more organized and entrenched group than Hamas, and Lebanon’s wider geographic landscape gives the group opportunities to adapt and adapt.”

Hezbollah FIRED a ballistic missile into Tel Aviv, central Israel, on Wednesday morning, the first time it has done so since the standoff with Israel began nearly a year ago. Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted it. If a similar attack causes casualties or destruction, Israel may expand its campaign against Hezbollah’s urban stronghold in southern Beirut.

Israel’s army chief visited troops in northern Israel on Wednesday, the third day of this campaign and suggested a possible ground operation. Hundreds of thousands of people were forced from their homes by artillery fire across the border. Israel aims to force Hezbollah to withdraw all its forces and weapons from the Lebanese border regions with Israel and north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon so that the tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by border clashes in October can return.

Hezbollah’s long-range weapons can reach far beyond the border regions in northern Israel that it has blasted with drones and rockets. Orton noted that Hezbollah has so far shown a “marked aversion” to firing long-range rockets, speculating that it has only done so now after facing several setbacks, including injuring thousands of its fighters. by pagers rigged with explosives.

“The likely reason for this is a combination of Israel degrading the launchers so badly and the political consideration that the mass launch of long-range missiles should be the deterrent that prevents an Israeli strike directly on Iran,” Orton said .

“It can only be done once and there is a caution about exposing this threat as empty.”

Counting up to 150,000 surface-to-surface munitions, Hezbollah has several rockets and surface-to-surface missiles in his arsenal than any other militant group. It is much larger than what the group had the last time it fought a war with Israel in 2006. In addition to short-range munitions, Hezbollah also has short-range ballistic missiles and precision-guided munitions.

“Hezbollah is undoubtedly under significant pressure to deploy its more advanced capabilities and deliver successful strikes, especially as recent tactical losses have further diminished its deterrence and weakened its domestic image.” , Khoueiry said.

“A single missile could miss its intended target, causing mass casualties and triggering a proportionate Israeli retaliation.”

Iran, which has the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, has armed Hezbollah, its most powerful and important proxy, with variants of its indigenous drones and missiles for the past two decades.

With the help of Iran, Hezbollah acquired a large number of Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 long-range artillery missiles and Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missiles, especially the Syrian-produced M-600 variant. It also has tens of thousands of long-range unguided missiles, including the Fajr-3 intermediate-range multiple launch artillery missile and the Fajr-5 multiple launch missile system.

Iran sees these missiles as a means of counter-attack if the Israelis follow through on bomb threats Iran’s nuclear program. This is one of the reasons why he has been reluctant to risk an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel.

“Israel’s campaign may significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities, but they could be rebuilt,” Arash Azizi, senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University and author of “The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran’s Global Ambitions” , BI said. “It will push back Hezbollah, but it will not extinguish it for good.”

While condemning Israel’s attacks, Iran has not intervened militarily on behalf of Hezbollah. It last took action in April with direct missile strikes against Israel after an Israeli airstrike killed IRGC commanders in Syria. He promised retaliation for Israel’s killing of the Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, but did not do so until late September. Hezbollah is a far more important proxy and asset for Iran than Hamas or any other regional group.

Azizi noted that Iran still does not want a war because it does not have “a lot of great military options” against Israel.

“Iran also prioritizes economic development, which requires peace in the region and beyond,” Azizi said. “But there is a limit to such logic, which is that at some point, if escalation continues, Iran may have no choice but to attack Israel and become more involved.”

Many Iranians support the new Iranian president’s peace proposals at the United Nations. Still, destroying its Hezbollah missile deterrent is likely to persuade Iranian officials to build nuclear weapons more quickly as the ultimate deterrent.

“Many in Iran and the Iranian establishment now believe that Iran has no choice but to pursue nuclear weapons,” Azizi said. “Mainstream opinion still prefers Iran to use its nuclear advances to strike some kind of deal with the West, rather than pursue a nuclear weapon.”

“But the more isolated, weak and defeated Iran feels, the more likely it is to move toward the nuclear test option.”