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USD/CHF climbs above 0.8450 as traders brace for US PCE data

  • USD/CHF maintains positive ground near 0.8485 in the first European session on Friday, up 0.32% on the day.
  • The SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps, taking its policy rate to 1.00% at its September meeting on Thursday.
  • The Fed’s Cook said he “wholeheartedly” supported the rate cut.

USD/CHF is attracting some buyers around 0.8485 on Friday during the early European session. The Swiss franc (CHF) weakens after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates on Thursday. All eyes will be on the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data due later on Friday.

The Swiss central bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), taking its policy rate to 1.00%, the lowest level since early 2023. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that Thursday’s cut of the SNB was supported by lower inflationary pressure driven by a stronger CHF and other factors and expects a further 25bp cut at the December meeting, citing its accommodative guidance and new inflation projections.

Better-than-expected US economic data on Thursday provided some support for the US dollar (USD) against the CHF. US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended September 21 rose to 218,000, up from 222,000 the previous week (revised from 219,000). The figure came in below the initial consensus of 225K. Meanwhile, US durable goods orders were flat in August, compared with a 9.9% increase in July, stronger than expectations for a 2.6% decline.

However, dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and growing bets on a Fed rate cut in the coming months could limit the USD’s advantage. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Thursday she “wholeheartedly” supported the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, calling it an important step in maintaining the path to “moderate” economic growth.

SNB FAQ

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the level of interest rates and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means an increase in the Swiss consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.

The Governing Council of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its objective of price stability. When inflation is above target or is expected to be above target in the near future, the bank will try to control excessive price increases by raising the policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. Conversely, lower interest rates tend to weaken the CHF.

Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market to prevent the Swiss franc (CHF) from appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s strong export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the euro to limit the CHF’s advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its considerable foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying currencies such as the US dollar or the euro. During episodes of high inflation, especially due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening in the markets, as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.

The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to carry out its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.

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