Analysis – France’s new government is fragile, but don’t write it off just yet By Reuters

By Elizabeth Pineau and Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters) – It’s a mess, but it might last.

Despite looking like the most unstable French administration in recent history, scorned by the left and supported by the far right, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s fragile minority government may last longer than many think, lawmakers and analysts told Reuters.

That’s because Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, which could join forces with other disgruntled parties to topple the government at will, has no real interest in owning an even bigger mess that could hurt its hopes presidential in 2027. He also faces an inconvenient corruption trial. is due to start in Paris next week.

Meanwhile, Barnier has tried to appease Le Pen and neutralize the power of the far-right over his right-wing team by appointing ministers who share the RN’s anger over immigration and crime, leaving Le Pen’s party with less to grumble about .

The left – still angry that it won the most seats in this summer’s general election, only to see its prime ministerial candidate overlooked for the top job – says it will issue motions of no confidence against the government, but knows not has the numbers. on your own to make those threats count.

Say it softly, but after months of turmoil since Macron called the early vote, a fragile stability now prevails.

“The French don’t like chaos,” senior RN deputy and party spokesman Laurent Jacobelli told Reuters. “We are not here to cause chaos, we are pragmatic.”

Pouria Amirshahi, a Green Party lawmaker who was part of the left-wing alliance that won the most seats in this summer’s vote, said the stability of the new government was based on “a kind of resignation” from the left and that “The RN has no interest in bringing down the government immediately.”

“They want to calmly prepare to govern,” he said. The upcoming graft trial “will prevent Marine Le Pen from accelerating the upheavals that she is asking for but doesn’t really want,” he added.

On Monday, Le Pen, her party and 26 other RN members will go on trial at a Paris criminal court on charges of embezzling European Parliament funds.

Le Pen and the RN have denied any wrongdoing. If found guilty, they face 10 years in prison and a fine of €1 million, while they risk being banned from office for up to five years. The trial is expected to last seven weeks.

Jacobelli was calm about the impact the trial might have on the perception of the RN, but confident the party would prevail.

“Obviously this will be discussed at a time when we would rather talk about the problems and the future of the French,” he told Reuters.

EARLY TEST

The upcoming 2025 budget bill, which must reach MPs by mid-October at the latest, provides the first real test of Barnier’s government.

It is politically toxic. New Finance Minister Antoine Armand and Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin must find billions of euros in spending cuts and tax increases to close a larger-than-expected deficit.

While the talks will be tough, especially as France is under pressure from the EU and bond markets, the RN has little reason to shut down France by blocking the bill, experts said.

“They’re looking for respectability, so for them, playing a partner role in drafting the budget is very clearly part of their electoral strategy,” said Christopher Dembik, an economist at Swiss bank Pictet, who believes the government will survive until summer at least.

“Barnier understood perfectly well that in order to survive, whether he likes it or not, he needs the RN.”

That confidence was made clear this week.

After Armand incurred Le Pen’s ire by publicly suggesting he would exclude the RN from budget talks, Barnier was forced to call her to assure her the RN would be involved, and Armand was strong-armed to invite them, they said sources.

On Wednesday, right-wing Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said he would review tougher immigration laws after the far-right pounced on the death of a 19-year-old girl who was allegedly unlawfully killed by a Moroccan man in the country.

This new orthodoxy is causing unease among centrist MPs, who are now part of Barnier’s government but have been told not to upset their arch-enemy.

“For the prime minister to call Le Pen to say ‘I’m sorry if my economy minister offended you’ is shocking to me,” said Erwan Balanant, a member of the centrist pro-European MoDem party.

Macron, relegated to a weakened role after the election disaster, though confident that Barnier and his team will not kill his legislative legacy, now has little influence over the day-to-day flow of French political life.

That leaves the government’s new bedfellows to fend for themselves.

“I don’t know how long (the government) will last,” Balanant continued, “but we have to move forward, prepare a budget, so we have to work.”