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XAG/USD corrects further near $31.60 as traders brace for US inflation

  • Silver price falls to near $31.60 as core US PCE inflation takes center stage.
  • The US PCE core price index accelerated to 2.7% in August year-on-year.
  • Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates further by 75 bps over the rest of the year.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is extending its correction to near $31.60 in the European session on Friday after facing selling pressure from fresh highs of $32.70 on Thursday. The white metal is under pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of the US (US) August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index due at 12:30 GMT.

Economists forecast that the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, rose 2.37 percent, faster than July’s 2.6 percent, with the monthly figures up a steady 0.2 %. Investors are eagerly awaiting US inflation data as it will shape market speculation for likely Fed action in the final quarter of this year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is expected to further cut its key lending rates by 75 bps in its remaining two meetings this year, suggesting there will be a 50 bps rate cut and a 25 bps rate cut. Data on 30-day federal funds futures prices show traders are evenly split on a 25-bps or 50-bps interest rate cut in November.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is giving up early gains to stand above 100.50. US 10-year Treasury yields are lower at 3.79%.

Silver Technical Analysis

The price of silver is falling slightly after hitting a new decade high near $32.70. The white metal is under pressure ahead of key inflation data. However, its short-term outlook is bullish as all short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) are trending higher.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting strong bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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