A dangerous game of Red Sea influence

Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza and the relentless targeting of Red Sea shipping by the Houthis in Yemen are not micro-conflicts taking place in a vacuum, and the Horn of Africa is where the focus should shift, while the Russia- Iran is looking for weak points to manipulate for ultimate control of the Red Sea.

If the Houthi bombing is not catastrophic in itself, the plans of external forces beyond Houthi activities are.

Everyone is looking for an advantage, and right now the whole region is looking at the Red Sea, which brings the Houthi bombardment into sharper view.

Researchers at Critical Threats recently highlighted the different interests in the Red Sea and how a range of internal, cross-border and regional conflicts relate to claiming access here.

In Sudan, outside forces are meddling, with the United Arab Emirates supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF). At the same time, Russia and Iran support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The UAE, which already has access to the Red Sea, supports the RSF to protect its assets in Sudan, while Russia and Iran support the SAF because they want to build naval bases in Sudan on the Red Sea. Civil wars are much more than civil wars when internal rivals are armed by external players.

The UAE, of course, is leagues ahead of Iran and Russia with this Red Sea agenda. The Emirates has been very busy in recent years building military installations along the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, particularly around Yemen, where it holds much control in the south.

Ethiopia and Somalia are two more players fighting across the Red Sea, with Ethiopia desperate for access and trying to get it through the fragile breakaway region of Somaliland. The key external player here is Turkey, which Somalia uses as a bulwark against Ethiopia, which also benefits Egypt and the UAE, as it is all about control of the Red Sea. The next conflict to erupt in the region could easily be Ethiopia vs Somalia, bringing another group of foreign players into the melee. Such a scenario would then encourage the radical Islamist group Al-Shabaab. At the same time, US intelligence indicates that the Houthis and Al-Shabaab are collaborating. They know what’s coming and are preparing to step into the void (Think: Hamas/Hezbollah).

However, the UAE chose not to intervene regarding the Houthi attacks. His silence exempts him from being targeted, as does his influence in Yemen. Not a bear the Houthis would do well to poke. For the UAE, home of shipping giant DP World, as shipping traffic is diverted away from Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait to avoid being hit by missiles, much of the diverted traffic still benefits the UAE. In fact, Clarksons Research told clients on Thursday that the Red Sea conflict added about 3% to global shipping demand. Those who control the Red Sea and its ports find that business is actually booming. There is little motivation to stop the Houthis. (However, the lead in any move against the Houthis would have to come from the Saudis).

Then there is Russia, which was recently said to be in secret talks with the Houthis to supply them with drones, with Tehran also helping the Houthis secure Russian anti-tank missiles. Moscow is more or less scavenging for the crumbs of the other players in the Horn of Africa, but they are also good at scavenging.