Global egg price rises as bird flu hits supplies

Unlock Editor’s Digest for free

FT editor Roula Khalaf selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Egg prices have risen as devastating bird flu outbreaks around the world and changing consumer tastes have put pressure on supplies.

Global average prices are 60% higher than in 2019, according to analysts at Rabobank, a rapid appreciation led to a political score by JD Vance in the US election campaign. The egg shortage also created temporary restrictions on McDonald’s breakfast service in Australia.

A key factor in the price increase has been devastating outbreaks of bird flu in North America and Europe, which have led to the culling of tens of millions of laying birds.

About 33 million commercial laying hens and chickens were culled in the US between November 2023 and July this year, following another bird flu outbreak in 2022 that killed 40 million eggs, Rabobank found.

The “lingering effects” of bird flu have been compounded by rising demand, said Karyn Rispoli, managing editor of eggs at Expana, a provider of commodity trade data.

She said consumers are also turning to eggs as a more affordable source of protein than meat. Concerns about the carbon footprint of meat consumption also drove demand for eggs, Rabobank added.

Those factors have caused Americans to pay more than three times as much for eggs as they did five years ago, Rabobank said. In comparison, egg prices in South Africa have only doubled over the same period, while Russia, Japan, Brazil and Europe and India have seen price increases of between 50 and 90 percent, Rabobank said.

“Although prices are higher globally, there are large regional differences,” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, Global Specialist, Animal Protein with RaboResearch, part of Rabobank. The main exception is China, where the industry is suffering from too-rapid supply expansion and a relatively weak economy, he added.

The data indicated that egg lovers in the US have been subject to large price fluctuations in recent years. Mulder says U.S. producers also face regulations restricting the sale of eggs between states.

The price of a dozen eggs peaked at $4.82 in January 2023 as global feed prices rose following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, within a few months, they were halved. By August of this year, they had reached $3.02.

The fluctuations drew criticism from Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance in the swing state of Pennsylvania this month as he blamed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris for egg price inflation.

Egg sales generally decline during the summer months, but this year retail demand has been unusually strong, according to Emily Metz, president and chief executive officer of the American Egg Board.

She added that American farmers are trying to strengthen the supply of eggs. “Ideally, we need about one bird for every American,” said Metz, who estimated the U.S. has about 300 million laying hens for about 345 million Americans. “Increasing herd size to meet demand takes time, but we’re working on it.”

Globally, the bird flu outbreak is hitting other markets, particularly Australia, which has led to some supermarkets rationing eggs. In July, global fast food giant McDonald’s temporarily reduced breakfast hours at some Australian outlets in response to bird flu egg shortages. McDonald’s Australia did not respond to a request for comment.

In the medium term, there are signs of relief for US consumers, with US wholesale egg prices down 49% since August 16 as laying stocks have recovered.

However, Mulder is wary of whether this will translate into much lower prices on supermarket shelves.

“For now, through the end of the year, I think we’ll continue to see relatively high prices, maybe a little lower than now, as inventories rebuild,” he said.

“But as for the future: it all depends on whether there will be further outbreaks of bird flu in the winter – and that is hard to predict.”