Most voters support Democrats in these Alabama counties

24/7 Wall St. Perspectives

• In this election cycle, the Harris and Trump campaigns are focusing their resources on a handful of key states where the election is likely to be decided.
• In most of the rest of the country, including Alabama, the outcome of the race is effectively predetermined.
• However, Alabama’s red state status is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.
• Also: 2 dividend legends to be kept forever

Recent presidential elections have been decided by voters in a handful of contested swing states — and 2024 is shaping up to be no different. In a handful of states this election cycle, both major party candidates are voting so closely that either has a reasonable chance of winning. These states include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (That’s how Trump and Harris poll in every key swing state.)

Unlike these swing states — which are actually a toss-up — most states are already a virtual deadlock for either Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, or Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. So-called blue states like Massachusetts and Vermont are places Harris can be sure to carry in November. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to easily win red states like Idaho and Wyoming.

These and other non-swing states are often seen as political monoliths, home to like-minded voter populations with similar values ​​and priorities. This, however, is an oversimplification that belies a much more nuanced reality.

Alabama has long been seen as a red state. An average of 61.3 percent of Alabama voters supported the Republican nominee in the past four presidential elections. In fact, Alabama has gone to the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1976, when Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, defeated the GOP’s Gerald Ford. Barring any major and unforeseen change, Alabama is expected to align with historical voting patterns again in 2024 and go to Trump. (Here’s a look at the 15 least popular presidents, according to Millennials.)

Despite its status as a Republican stronghold, there are several parts of the state that have consistently broken with the dominant political ideology in recent elections. According to election records, there are 13 counties in Alabama where an average of at least 50 percent of voters supported the Democratic candidate in the last four presidential elections. In one of those counties, an average of 84.8 percent of voters voted for the Democratic candidate in the same four general elections.

These are the most Democratic counties in Alabama. All historical county-level voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

Why it matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a few closely contested states. Unlike these battleground states, most of the country voted reliably either Democrat or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Alabama, which, barring any unforeseen changes in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Trump in 2024. However, Alabama is not the partisan monolith it is often perceived to be.

13. Marengo County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 51.7% Democrat; 47.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 50.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 49.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 51.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 47.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 53.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 51.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.1% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 19,180

12. Russell County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 52.8% Democrat; 46.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 52.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 46.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 49.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 47.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 55.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 53.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.0% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 58,849

11. Jefferson County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 53.1% Democrat; 45.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 55.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 42.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 51.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 44.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 52.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 52.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 47.1% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 672,265

10. Hale County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 60.5% Democrat; 39.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 59.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 40.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 59.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 39.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 62.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 60.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.0% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 14,742

9. Montgomery County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 61.9% Democrat; 36.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 65.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 33.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 61.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 35.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 61.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 37.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 59.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 40.1% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 228,132

8. Dallas County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 68.4% Democrat; 31.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 68.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 30.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 68.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 30.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 69.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 30.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 67.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 32.6% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 38,326

7. Wilcox County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 71.3% Democrat; 28.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 68.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 31.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 70.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 28.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 74.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 25.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 71.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 28.8% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 10,441

6. Perry County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 73.4% Democrat; 26.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 73.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 25.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 72.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 26.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 74.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 24.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 72.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 27.3% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 8,479

5. Lowndes County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 74.3% Democrat; 25.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 72.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 26.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 73.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 26.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 76.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 23.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 74.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 24.9% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 10,153

4. Bullock County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 75.0% Democrat; 24.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 74.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 24.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 74.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 24.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 76.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 23.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 74.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 25.7% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 10,328

3. Sumter County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 75.1% Democrat; 24.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 73.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 25.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 74.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 24.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 77.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 22.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 75.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 24.7% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 12,196

2. Greene County

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 82.9% Democrat; 16.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 81.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 18.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 82.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 17.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 84.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 15.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 83.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 16.5% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 7,706

1. Macon county

• Average split of the popular vote in the last 4 presidential elections: 84.8% Democrat; 14.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 81.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 17.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2016 election: 82.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 15.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in the 2012 election: 87.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 12.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in the 2008 election: 86.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 12.8% Republican (John McCain)
• Population of the county: 19,198

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