How Trump’s Backers Could Help Democrats Keep a Senate Majority

• Donald Trump is hoping to push several swing state Senate candidates across the finish line.
• But some of his supporters say they plan to support Democrats in those races.
• These divided voters could have a major impact on the country.

In recent presidential election cycles, the level of ticket splitting — where people vote for candidates from different parties on the ballot — has declined.

About 20 years ago, then-presidential candidate John Kerry lost GOP-leaning states like Arkansas and North Dakota, even though the incumbent Democratic senators from those states — Blanche Lincoln and Byron Dorgan — reached victory.

In general, this type of ticket splitting was not considered atypical.

But by 2020, things were different. Maine was the only state that year in which voters supported a presidential candidate from one party (Democrat Joe Biden) and a Senate candidate from another party (Republican Susan Collins).

In November, a host of incumbent Democratic senators are running for re-election in states where the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains competitive.

However, there is an interesting dynamic at play in swing states such as Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania heading into November: A relatively small but significant bloc of Trump voters also supports Democratic Senate candidates.

While many of these Trump voters have long been loyal to the former president, many of the Democrats running have more moderate political brands, which so far have given them advantages in the polls over their GOP counterparts.

Here’s a look at how pro-Trump ticket splitters could invariably help a Harris presidency if she wins the general election or cause trouble for Trump’s agenda if he emerges victorious.

Ahead of the pack

Even before Biden ended his re-election bid, swing state Democrats in the most competitive Senate races were generally leading in the polls.

While Biden struggled in the face-off with Trump, many voters earlier this year had already begun to differentiate between the presidential race and the down-ballot candidates.

Trump eagerly threw his support behind GOP Senate candidates such as Arizona’s Kari Lake, Michigan’s Mike Rogers, Ohio’s Bernie Moreno and Pennsylvania’s David McCormick. And he implored his supporters to vote for these candidates.

But the Democrats in these races largely defied today’s conventional political norms.

According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll of five competitive Senate races, an average of 7 percent of likely voters indicated they would support Trump, while they would pull the lever for a Democratic nominee in Senate.

States surveyed included Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Of the five states, Ohio is the most likely to vote for Trump, as he won it easily in both 2016 and 2020. And the latest Times/Siena poll showed Trump with a six-point lead vs. Harris (50% to 44%). in the Buckeye State among likely voters.

But in the same poll, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown had a four-point lead over Moreno among likely voters (47 percent to 43 percent). Brown also won more than 13 percent of Republicans in the poll, a level of cross-party support that helps him in the red-leaning state.

The Times/Siena poll also showed Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Lake by six points (49% to 43%) in Arizona. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin led Rogers by five points (47% to 42%). And in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Sens. Bob Casey Jr. and Tammy Baldwin led their GOP opponents by nine and seven points, respectively, among likely voters.

Why does this matter?

If Democrats run in the most competitive Senate races, it will leave them on the brink of keeping their majority.

For Democrats, winning both safe and swing state races — along with Ohio — would push the party to 49 seats. Then they would need Montana Sen. Jon Tester to win re-election to reach 50 seats. (Tester is currently locked in a tough re-election battle against Republican Tim Sheehy in a state Trump is expected to win by double digits.)

Democrats are now trying to expand their Senate map by investing more money in Florida and Texas, which tilt Republican at the presidential level but are poised to have close Senate races.

Holding the majority is the best-case scenario for Harris should he win the election, as he would need a Democratic-led Senate to not only pass most of his agenda, but pass most of it of his judicial appointments.

If Harris wins in November and Democrats pick up exactly 50 seats, then Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would provide a majority by virtue of his vice presidential tie-breaking skills.

And Democrats may have some of Trump’s voters to thank for that.

But if Trump were to win the election and pro-Trump ticket-splitters help Democrats retain their majority, it would put the brakes on a conservative agenda.

A Democratic Senate would serve as a check on Trump. If Democrats flip the House, that chamber would be another check on him. And even if Republicans keep the House in a potential second Trump term, they would clash with a Democratic-led Senate on a number of issues.

So Trump-supporting ticket-splitters now have the potential to become one of the most important voting blocs in the 2024 election.