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USD/JPY rises above 143.00 on Japan’s harmonious dialogue Ishiba

  • USD/JPY rises above 143.00 as Japan’s Ishiba underscores the need for accommodative policy.
  • Investors await Fed Powell speech for new interest rate guidance.
  • The Fed is expected to further cut interest rates by 75 bps this year.

USD/JPY is rising strongly above 143.00 in the North American session on Monday. The asset is strengthening as conciliatory remarks from Japan’s new leader, Shigeru Ishiba, who emerged victorious in the prime ministerial contest on Friday, weighed heavily on the Japanese yen (JPY).

Shigeru Ishiba said in an interview with public broadcaster NHK on Monday’s Asian trading program: “From the government’s point of view, monetary policy must remain accommodative in trend given the current economic conditions.”

For more interest rate guidance, investors will focus on the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions (SOP) for its latest monetary policy meeting on September 20. In its monetary policy announcement, the BoJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.1. %-0.25% and directed them to remain data dependent. While investors were anticipating such remarks for the last quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, a slight rebound in the US dollar also weighed on the pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is recovering intraday losses to near 100.50. The greenback is gaining ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled for 17:00 GMT.

Investors will be paying close attention to Powell’s interest rate guidance to see how much the Fed will cut over the rest of the year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps), suggesting another 50 basis points (bps) in either of the two remaining meetings in November and December. On September 18, the Fed kicked off its rate-cutting cycle with a larger-than-usual 50 bps cut.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers due to a growing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks. More recently, the gradual unwinding of this ultra-tight policy has provided some support to the yen.

Over the past decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to an ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favored the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The BoJ’s decision in 2024 to phase out ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest rate cuts at other major central banks, narrows this gap.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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