Which countries’ armies are getting weaker?

Defense spending is rising globally, but money is not the only factor in a nation’s military power. Each year, Global Firepower releases the Global Firepower Index, which tracks the military effectiveness of the world’s nations. Where some states rise, others must fall. This article looks at countries whose militaries have fallen in the rankings and explains why.

Why this matters

Year-to-year comparisons can be difficult, but it helps to look at the global balance of power. The United States is still the world’s largest military power, but some key allies are struggling with political and economic problems. It is important to know where these weaknesses lie.

United Kingdom

2023 place: 5th

2024 place: 6th

Defense budget: $76.38 billion

The UK is the second biggest spender in NATO and the biggest in Europe, but its military power is declining. Years of severe austerity and navigating the post-Brexit economy mean the UK’s economic outlook is bleak. One report concluded that Ministry of Defense (Md) cannot afford the existing equipment plan for 2023-2033.

The MoD is also having difficulty maintaining and eventually replacing it costly nuclear deterrence. The British Armed Forces will shrink by around 3% from 2023 to 2024, a drop of just under 6,000 service personnel. I am intends to halt this decline but Britain’s financial problems will constrain how much investment can be made in its armed forces.

Pakistan

2023 place: 7th

2024 place: 9th

Defense budget: $6.27 billion

Pakistan’s military might belies its weak economy and extremely low GDP per capita. With 170 nuclear warheadsPakistan’s high rank comes mostly from ballistics and large standing army (sixth largest). Former President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto once remarked in 1965 that his people would eat “grass and leaves” if it meant getting nuclear weapons.

The military is the dominant force in Pakistani politics and a drain on its underdeveloped economy. With worsening of relations with the United States and a deterioration of the political situation at home, Pakistan have some tough choices ahead of them.

France

2023 place: 10th

2024 place: 11th

Defense budget: $52.56 billion

France was one of several NATO members to meet its 2% defense spending target in 2024. However, the increase in military spending comes at a time when France is running a steep deficitconsiderably higher than previous projections. Keeping military spending high while cutting back elsewhere it will be difficult to maintain amid such sharp political divisions.

France is reduced its military presence in Africa to about 600 troops, down from over 6000 two years ago. The French army has a major problem with recruitment and retention.

Egypt

2023 place: 14th

2024 place: 15th

Budget: $9.4 billion (including US aid)

The most populous nation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Egypt’s military might is a source of economic weakness. The military overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi in 2013 after just over a year in power. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, former head of the Egyptian armed forces and current president, took power in 2014.

The military have a neck squeeze on Egypt’s economy and profit handsomely from major construction projects such as The new Administrative Capital being built near Cairo. Geopolitical events such as the war in Ukraine (Egypt relies on Russia and Ukraine for wheat) and the war between Hamas and Israel have seen Egyptian pound decrease in value. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have reduced revenues from the Suez Canal by 44% from last year.

As a result, Egypt’s military power is weakening, but due to its key geopolitical position, loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still coming. For global trade, Egypt is essentially “too big to fail.”

Ukraine

2023 place: 15th

2024 place: 19th

Defense budget: $40 billion

Almost three years into a war that was supposed to last a few days, Ukraine’s dogged resistance the analyst’s confused predictions of a short war. However, there is no denying that holding off the Russian attack for too long has had a huge impact on Ukraine and its military is weaker for it. Its GDP has fallen almost 30% in the first year. With limited industry and labor, Kiev’s continued survival depends heavily on support from the West.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, domestic politics in key donor countries have moved away from Kiev, and the arms rate has slowed significantly. The United States sent four crucial aid packages in 2022, but none the following year. Other nations have struggled to fill this funding gap, although they have received new weapons may help tip the scales once more.

Ukraine’s biggest problem is that it cannot sustain heavy losses for long. Average age of the armed forces defending Ukraine it is 40-43 – much older than most of the military. A new controversial recruitment law reduced the age limit. However, another key issue is the rotation of troops already serving outside of combat, as soldiers need time outside of combat to recuperate. Ukraine has the will to fight, but without renewed and sustained support, it will not be able to continue indefinitely.

Conclusion

With global military spending on the rise, staying ahead of the competition is much more difficult. There are various underlying causes for a decline in military power, but they will most likely be economic and political. Britain is still a big spender in regional terms, but its small military is overstretched and the post-Brexit situation limits further investment. Similarly, France has withdrawn from Africa and is struggling to meet its obligations. The armies of Egypt and Pakistan are certainly not insignificant, but they have major systemic problems to overcome. Ukraine is feeling the effects of a sustained conflict with a damaged but still powerful adversary.

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