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EUR/GBP trades steady above 0.8300 as traders await Eurozone inflation data

  • EUR/GBP flat lines near 0.8330 in the first European session on Tuesday.
  • The ECB’s Lagarde signaled an October interest rate cut as inflation slows.
  • The BoE’s less accommodative stance could support the pound in the short term.

EUR/GBP is trading flat around 0.8330 during the early European session on Tuesday. However, growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in October could limit the euro’s (EUR) advantage against the British pound (GBP).

ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday hinted at further interest rate cuts at her next policy meeting in October, amid growing signs that inflation is under control and the economy is struggling. Lagarde added that the central bank is more confident that inflation will stabilize at its target after a series of recent data and will take that into account when setting its next policy. Growing bets on an ECB rate cut are likely to weigh on the common currency for now.

Traders will be closely watching preliminary Eurozone inflation data for further impetus. The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is expected to grow by 1.9% year-on-year in September, while the core HICP is expected to rise by 2.9% year-on-year over the same period.

On the other hand, the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) easing cycle will be lower than other central banks in the Group of Seven (G-7) countries provides some support for the GBP. Investors expect the BoE to cut interest rates once more by 25 bps for the rest of this year.

ECB FAQs

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany is the reserve bank for the euro area. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB’s main mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its main tool to achieve this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually lead to a stronger euro and vice versa. The Governing Council of the ECB takes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are taken by the heads of national banks in the euro area and six permanent members, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can implement a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, and during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the inverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation begins to rise. While in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) buys government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds and stops reinvesting the maturing principal in the bonds it already owns . It is usually positive (or bullish) for the euro.

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