OPEC+ is unlikely to change production policy at the panel’s October 2 meeting By Reuters

By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Maha El Dahan

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) – An OPEC+ panel is unlikely this week to recommend any changes to its current agreement to cut output and begin to reverse some December cuts, despite recent sharp falls in oil prices, they said five sources from the producer group told Reuters. .

Senior ministers from the Russian-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, as the group is known, will hold an online meeting of the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) at 12:00 GMT on Wednesday.

“Although the oil market situation is a bit complicated, I do not expect a new decision or any changes to the OPEC+ agreement at Wednesday’s meeting,” one of the sources said, declining to be identified.

Oil prices have fallen in 2024, last month falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since 2021, pressured by concerns about global demand and rising supply outside OPEC+. Brent was trading near $71 on Tuesday. (OR)

OPEC+ is currently cutting production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of agreed steps from the end of 2022.

The latest deal calls for OPEC+ to increase production by 180,000 bpd in December, part of a plan to gradually unwind the latest level of voluntary cuts in 2025. The increase has been delayed since October after prices fell.

Compliance by countries with cuts will also be in focus at the meeting and in the coming weeks, particularly that of Iraq and Kazakhstan, which pledged so-called compensation cuts of 123,000 bpd in September and more in subsequent months to compensate for past overproduction.

An OPEC+ source told Reuters last week that when it becomes clearer that compensation cuts are being made in September, this will allow the December increase to continue as the net addition of supply to the market will be minimal.

However, a lack of compliance could prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to withdraw their December cuts sooner, analysts said.

“If they don’t comply, we can imagine a faster removal of the voluntary cuts,” RBC Capital’s Helima Croft said in a report.

The JMMC, which brings together oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other top producers, usually meets every two months and can make recommendations for policy change.