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NZD/USD moves below 0.6300 after paring daily gains, Fedspeak awaits

  • NZD/USD could lose ground on risk-off sentiment amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
  • The US dollar is gaining ground on the declining likelihood of a sharp Fed rate cut in November.
  • The New Zealand dollar could struggle as the RBNZ is expected to deliver a 50 basis point cut next week.

NZD/USD is paring daily gains but holding on to some gains, trading around 0.6290 in early European hours on Wednesday. The upside of the risk-sensitive Kiwi pair could be held back by rising risk-averse sentiment amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Iran fired more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation against Tehran for Tuesday’s attack. In response, Iran warned that any counterattack would lead to “vast destruction,” raising concerns about a wider conflict, according to Bloomberg.

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell said the central bank would cut its interest rate gradually over time. The US dollar is receiving support from the declining likelihood of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed in November.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates that markets assign a 62.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 37.3% , down from 57.4% a week ago.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting is scheduled for next week, and markets have already priced in a high probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. HSBC analysts now expect the RBNZ to cut its cash rate by 50 basis points in both October and November, revising previous forecasts of cuts of 25 basis points each month.

The Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) is also predicting a 50 basis point cut from the RBNZ next week. “In our view, the disinflationary data we have received will be a key factor in causing the RBNZ to accelerate its easing process,” they said.

RBNZ FAQs

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are to achieve and maintain price stability – achieved when inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is between 1% and 3% – and to support maximum sustainable employment.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) based on its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will try to tame it by raising the key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. Conversely, lower interest rates tend to weaken the NZD.

Employment is important to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s target of “sustainable maximum employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration of inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, eventually prices will rise faster and faster, forcing the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says .

In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can implement a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim of increasing the domestic money supply and stimulating economic activity. QE usually leads to a weaker New Zealand dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the central bank’s objectives. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

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