GDP forecast up as leaders draw line in sand – Danske Bank

Following the big stimulus and clear growth message from Chinese leaders, we are revising our 2025 growth forecast for China upwards from 4.8% to 5.2%. For 2024 we keep our forecast of 4.8%, notes Danske Bank analyst Allan von Mehren.

Everything is clear for growth

“The stimulus is the strongest coordinated push to lift the economy since the global financial crisis of 2008. We expect China to continue with fiscal stimulus measures on the other side of the National Day holiday.”

“The key to turning around the Chinese recession is to end the housing crisis, which we see as the epicenter of the current challenges. We are now looking for a gradual improvement in housing over the next year, but not a quick rebound.”

“China is ready to move from a disinflationary force to a more neutral one. As we expect the recovery to be gradual, we do not expect China to become an inflationary force in the next 6-12 months.”